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SEATTLE — U.S. retailers are estimated to generate online sales of up to $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday, a decline in growth from a year earlier as fewer discounts and limited choices due to global supply chain disruptions deter shoppers.
Retailers had also spread out promotional deals across more weeks this year to protect profit margins from surging supply chain costs and to better manage inventories amid widespread product shortages ahead of the Christmas shopping season.
Those attempts have pinched sales on what are traditionally some of the biggest shopping days of the year, with Adobe Analytics data over the weekend showing spending online during Black Friday fell for the first time ever.
"Online sales on big shopping days like Thanksgiving and Black Friday are decreasing for the first time in history, and it is beginning to smooth out the shape of the overall season," said Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights.
U.S. spending on Cyber Monday, which gained popularity in the mid-2000s, is expected to be between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion, according to estimates from Adobe.
That translates to roughly flat growth at the midpoint compared to last year's $10.8 billion, which was a near 15% jump from 2019.
Excitement on social media around Cyber Monday is also ebbing.
"Cyber Monday continues to be extremely relevant, particularly in the digital world, but the buzz has been more muted than we've seen in recent history," said Rob Garf, general manager of retail at Salesforce.
Discount rates in the United States in the week leading up to Cyber Monday were on average 8% lower than they were last year, according to Salesforce.
The holiday season kicks off just as the new omicron coronavirus variant has triggered uncertainty over the economic reopening, but experts say it is too early to predict the impact on consumer spending.