Pick Six Previews: Oregon with the advantage against Utah in raucous scene

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah held a 28-14 lead over USC and saw it slip away via 18 unanswered points, but rallied for a last-minute drive and game-winning field goal by Cole Becker.

Kyle Whittingham's program became the first team since the Pac-12 expansion (2011) to win four straight over USC.

Utah defeated the national media's sweethearts yet again and used their same trusted formula: player development, talent identification, play-design, and, of course, good old-fashioned grit. Against a roster packed with five-star recruits and top-rated transfers, those Utah intangibles won again.

Several times throughout the game, Utah had Bryson Barnes, Ja'Quinden Jackson and Sione Vaki together in the backfield. A walk-on fourth stringer at quarterback, a converted quarterback at running back, and the current starting safety as the do-it-all weapon. And they dominated, again.

When people ask me why I enjoy covering the Utah football program so closely — all the way from Pennsylvania — this game and the Utah-USC rivalry is the perfect example.

On the quest for a Pac-12 three-peat, Utah has no time off as they are dealt another top contender just seven days after the USC thriller. Oregon comes to Salt Lake City — along with the College GameDay production — for a critical game of one-loss teams vying for a spot in the Las Vegas title game (1:30 p.m. MDT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Oregon 60.1 (17th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Oregon 67.4 (12th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 63.0 (22nd) | Oregon 79.7 (5th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top-10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah rose three spots in Power Five Game Grader, up to No. 22, after the 34-32 win over USC. The offensive development is helping them continue to climb after the Oregon State loss.

I pre-ranked Oregon No. 12 in my preseason magazine, and they quickly surged into the top five of 2023 Game Grader after several dominant blowout wins. They lost a coin-flip game at Washington, but in their other six games they have posted an average margin of victory of 36 points per game (+260 yardage average). They remain in the top five and are still a clear Pac-12 contender.

Oregon with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Oregon offense: 4th of 69 Power 5 (overall), 5th passing, 1st rushing
Utah defense: 14th of 69 Power Five (overall), 11th passing, 1st rushing

Oregon's Bo Nix just set the quarterback record for most career starts, and he is playing his best ball yet. The dynamic Nix currently leads the nation in completion percentage (78.4%), is second in touchdown-to-interception ratio (19-1), and third in the all-encompassing QB Rating.

The crazy part? Their rushing offense may be even better.

Oregon currently leads the nation in yards per carry and their high 6.7 average is the best in Power Five since 2014's Wisconsin attack. Even when adjusting for opponent strength, Oregon ranks No. 1 in Power Five rushing.

I always try to highlight the "strength on strength" positional matchups, and this game features one of the best I can recall. Oregon has the No. 1 rushing offense and No. 1 pass protection offensive line. They face off against Utah's No. 1 ranked rushing defense, and a pass rush that features Jonah Elliss whose 10 sacks are No. 1 in Power Five.

In last year's 20-17 Oregon win, Utah was the only Pac-12 team to hold the Ducks under 400 yards. In that game, Nix was dealing with an injury that limited his dual-threat ability. This 2023 offense is off to a stronger start — and Nix is healthy — but Utah's defense has also improved significantly since then.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 63rd of 69 Power Five (overall), 59th passing, 46th rushing
Oregon defense (2023): 11th of 69 Power Five (overall), 18th passing, 42nd rushing

Andy Ludwig just pieced together a masterpiece Saturday night. He out-dueled the defending Heisman winner despite missing: QB1, QB2, RB2, RB4, TE1, TE2, and multiple offensive linemen. He and his staff identified where certain players could help the injury-riddled team, and since the bye week, Sione Vaki has been the best two-way player in America.

Vaki rushed for 158 and three touchdowns against Cal, and then posted 149 receiving yards against USC — the first Utah player to go over 100 yards in a game this season. Jackson brings a big frame and physical running, while Barnes was efficient with the ball aside from the pick six. It was actually Barnes' legs that proved most important, as he scrambled 26 yards on the final play to set up the game-winning field goal.

Oregon brings a significant step-up defensively compared to USC's unit. This will be the second toughest defense that Utah has faced — wedged between UCLA and Oregon State who both held the Utah offense to seven points. Utah's offense has grown since then, but this side of the ball appears to be an advantage for Oregon.

Game prediction

This schedule forces Utah right back into the Pac-12 gauntlet and national spotlight. The Oregon offense is as elite as USC's last week, and Utah's defense is one of the top-ranked in all of Power Five. Even if we call that matchup a stalemate, the other side of the ball (Utah offense vs. Oregon defense) appears to be an advantage for Oregon.

My Game Grader formula would favor Oregon by about 8 points on a neutral field right now, but factoring in the Rice-Eccles home field advantage closes the margins. Utah currently has the third-longest home win streak, and I am sure the television cameras will be shaking as usual. That atmosphere pulls this back into toss-up range.

Oregon 24 | Utah 20

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