Pick Six Previews: Despite injuries, Utah to come out on top on road against USC

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah came off the bye week with a renewed physicality in the run game — on both lines of scrimmage — to post a 34-14 bounce back win over California.

The Utes hit the regular season halfway mark with a 5-1 record (2-1 Pac-12) and are now set to face the nation's No. 5, No. 9, and No. 18 teams in a four-game span.

They beat Cal with their old, proven formula. It was a suffocating rushing defense that held Cal to 150 yards below their season average, a ball-hawking defense that stole two turnovers, and an efficient offense that converted the critical spots like third down (10-of-17) and red zone (5-of-6).

Given the unlucky run of injuries, especially at the offensive skill positions, Utah turned to safety Sione Vaki to run Wildcat package similar to program legend Eric Weddle in 2006. Vaki led the game with 158 yards, two touchdowns, and a 72-yard breakaway score down the left sideline to ice the win.

On the quest for a Pac-12 three-peat, Utah faces its toughest challenge yet with a rematch of last year's title game and against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The Utes travel to Los Angeles for the primetime matchup with USC (6 p.m. MDT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | USC 61.7 (13th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | USC 70.1 (9th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 60.5 (25th) | USC 61.0 (24th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top-10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah's 5-1 start has been filled with close wins, and those slim margins hurt their rank in 2023 Game Grader so far. On Saturday, the Utes posted their most complete game yet with a 20-point (+200 yardage) win over California. The win boosted Utah up eight spots to No. 25 in Power Five Game Grader.

Despite all the national preseason hype, I was the only preseason magazine to place USC outside of the Pac-12 title game. Their first six opponents have a 13-26 overall record, and even with such a weak starting slate, USC was challenged late into the fourth quarter, or triple overtime, against Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona. After the blowout loss to Notre Dame, USC fell to No. 24 in Game Grader.

USC with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

USC offense: 3rd of 69 Power Five (overall), 10th passing, 7th rushing
Utah defense: 13th of 69 Power Five (overall), 19th passing, 1st rushing

Notre Dame harassed Heisman winner Caleb Williams Saturday night in South Bend. They mixed up their fronts, pressures and blitz packages to both confuse the offensive line and force Williams into rushed throws. Williams is dangerous when he is able to sit in the pocket and go through his progressions unfazed — and is even more lethal when he is able to freelance and scramble all over the field.

Notre Dame neutralized all of that. They forced Williams into his worst passing game of his career and converted the three interceptions into short touchdown drives. It was as if they took the blueprints from Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley and emulated how Utah dominated in Las Vegas last year.

USC's offense is the same elite caliber as last year, but Utah's defense is much improved in 2023 now that they are a year more veteran. Utah leads the entire nation in my opponent-adjusted rushing defense and is in the top five with 22 sacks. Notre Dame notched 11 tackles for loss against this USC offensive line, and I expect Utah to do the same.

A potential mismatch favoring USC would be their dynamic receivers in the open field against Utah's secondary — especially without All-American candidate safety Cole Bishop out for the first half (targeting suspension). Freshman Zachariah Branch is one of the best playmakers in the country.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 67th of 69 Power Five (overall), 66th passing, 52nd rushing
USC defense (2023): 42nd of 69 Power Five (overall), 52nd passing, 61st rushing

Cam Rising Watch enters Week 8, and we are still unsure about the timeline of the two-time conference champion quarterback's return. Head coach Kyle Whittingham made the decision to promote Bryson Barnes to full-time starter last week, and after getting all the first-team reps, Barnes posted an efficient 15-of-21 passing and added 50 yards rushing.

For the offense to reach full potential, a wide receiver needs to step up and demand the attention of the secondary. Barnes is good for one or two deep shots per game — Utah needs to hit these Saturday.

Given the injuries to Brant Kuithe, and now Thomas Yassmin, the original one-two punch at tight end is gone, which puts even more pressure on the receiver group to hit their potential.

Even without three starters, the offensive line returned to old form Saturday as the offense posted 317 rushing yards and a high 6.0 yards per carry average. The return of Ja'Quinden Jackson certainly helped, as did the lightning-in-a-bottle Vaki who was a decisive runner and hit the holes fast.

If there are concerns about Vaki's Wildcat package against USC, just look at what Arizona State did with their fullback Cam Skattebo. Need a breakout performance from the passing attack? Look at what Arizona did with a first-time starting freshman quarterback or what Colorado posted in their wild second half against USC.

This defense continues to be a program-limiting liability and was a key factor in projecting USC to finish outside of the league's top two. Points and yards will be there for the taking, Utah just needs execute and win the money spots: third downs and red zone.

Game prediction

It's time for round three. Utah won both matchups last year — first in a high-scoring thriller in Rice-Eccles Stadium, and then a physical beatdown in the title game — and this 2023 edition could determine who makes a return trip to Vegas.

USC is basically a carbon copy of their 2022 team: elite offense, under-performing defense. Thanks to injuries to star players, Utah's offense has taken a step back, but the defense has grown into one of Scalley's best units.

Despite the injuries, I will stick with my preseason forecast here. Utah will win both lines of scrimmage, force turnovers, and convert short fields into points. This will be another signature game for the "RSNB" defense.

Utah 27 | USC 24

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