Pick Six Previews: BYU to capitalize on weak Arkansas pass defense in shootout

PROVO — Slow starts have been a recurring theme for BYU this season, and Notre Dame continued the trend on Saturday in the Las Vegas "Shamrock Series" matchup.

The ball control was heavily tilted toward the Fighting Irish, who won the time of possession 41 minutes to just 19.

Notre Dame jumped out to a 25-6 lead early in the third quarter, but the Cougars fought back with two touchdown drives of their own and gave the ball back to the offense with one last possession to tie the game. BYU crossed into Notre Dame territory, but the Irish stuffed their fourth-and-1 carry with three minutes left to play. Notre Dame ran the clock out from there and BYU fell to 4-2 at the halfway point of the 2022 season.

This was the start of a two-week, season-defining stretch against two Power Five opponents. BYU gets another opportunity Saturday as they host Arkansas, who will become the third SEC opponent to ever play in Provo.

Arkansas reached the Associated Press' Top 10 in September but is reeling off of three consecutive SEC losses. In a crowded slate of games, this matchup is still intriguing enough to draw national coverage (1:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

BYU is on a 7-3 run against the Power Five since the start of the 2021 season but looks to reverse a two-game Power Five losing streak (Oregon & Notre Dame).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-Year Average 2019-21: BYU 61.0 (16th of 66 Power Five) | Arkansas 42.2 (51st)
2021 Season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | Arkansas 61.9 (16th)
2022 Season: BYU 55.9 (32nd) | Arkansas 48.5 (43rd)

The loss to Notre Dame dropped BYU six spots to No. 32 in 2022 Game Grader. While it was just a one-score margin, the yardage tells a different story. Notre Dame nearly doubled up BYU in total yardage (496-280) and converted a high 11-of-16 on third downs to extend time-consuming drives.

At the season's midway point, BYU holds a 4-2 record — 1-2 in their Power Five matchups — and will likely be favored in their final five games.

Arkansas opened with a tight win over Cincinnati, rolled over South Carolina 44-30, but has dropped three straight games to Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. That two-point A&M loss could have been flipped if not for a fluky missed field goal that hit the top of the goal post.

The Razorback also showed their high potential the following week by rallying back from a 28-0 deficit against No. 1 Alabama — before a fourth quarter collapse. In total, the 3-3 Razorbacks check in at No. 43 in 2022 Game Grader for one of the biggest disappointments compared to preseason expectations.

Arkansas with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arkansas Offense: 17th of 66 Power Five
BYU Defense: 36th of 66 Power Five

Arkansas was ridiculed when they hired "just an offensive line coach," but Sam Pittman has proved the critics wrong so far. Pittman completely reshaped the offensive line overnight, and last year they led the entire SEC in rushing.

Their power run game is the offense's identity, and coordinator Kendal Briles said he felt comfortable going five-deep at running back. Rocket Sanders is the headliner — he leads the SEC in rushing with an average of 116 yards per game and is the conference's only 100-yard back.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson is another bright spot and the key reason for Arkansas' Top 20 ranking in Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted offensive percentiles. With his 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame, he is not afraid to tuck the ball down and truck defenders. In the passing game he puts the ball up for his receivers to win one-on-one matchups and is ranked fourth (SEC) in the all-encompassing QB Rating metric at the halfway point.

Coming into the Notre Dame game, BYU's defense was struggling against the run; and while the total yardage allowed was high, their bend-don't-break style held them to 28 (26 without the safety) on the scoreboard. BYU actually held Notre Dame below their season's scoring average, and I came away impressed with how the defense kept them in the game at key moments.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU Offense: 20th of 66 Power Five
Arkansas Defense: 60th of 66 Power Five

This side of the ball is the bigger mismatch.

BYU's best strength is its pass game, with quarterback Jaren Hall playing near-perfect football, and one of the school's deepest receiver corps stepping up one-by-one as the season progressed. This passing attack matches up against the 127th rated pass defense in America (of 131 FBS teams).

Arkansas' defensive stats look bad in total, but even when accounting for opponent strength they are far below average. They currently rate 60th of 66 team sin Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted percentiles, and all five FBS opponents posted offensive performances above their season averages.

Game prediction

Look for BYU to capitalize on a statistically weak Arkansas pass defense. No Power Five defense has allowed more 30+ yard pass plays, and I expect BYU to hit on several explosive plays Saturday. BYU wins a shootout and launches the second half of their season with an SEC victory.

BYU 37 | Arkansas 31

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