Pac-12 power ratings: UW vaults Oregon after big win, Arizona climbs again and USC drops

The first substantive Pac-12 roster news of the offseason broke Sunday, with two weeks remaining in the regular season: Utah quarterback Cam Rising, out all year with a knee injury, announced his return for 2024.

Rising's presence instantly makes the Utes a frontrunner in the Big 12 race and serves as a reminder of the chaos to come.

The first half of December is the business stretch of the college football year with playoff and bowl announcements, coaching turnover and player movement.

Here are important dates for your calendar:

Dec. 1: Pac-12 championship game

Dec. 3: College Football Playoff and bowl pairings announced

Dec. 4: Transfer portal opens (closing date: Jan. 2)

Dec. 20-22: Early signing window for recruitsJan. 8: CFP championship game

Jan. 15: NFL Draft early-entry deadline

It should be a dizzying stretch, and the Hotline will cover every bit of news that impacts the Pac-12 schools — regardless of their conference affiliations next year.

To the power ratings …

(All times Pacific)

1. Washington (11-0/8-0)

Last week: 2

Result: won at Oregon State 22-20

Next up: vs. Washington State (1 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: Had we known prior to kickoff that UW would not score in the second half in Reser Stadium, the Hotline would have presumed a loss without giving it a second thought. But the defense stood tall — tall enough, at least — and the victory was enough to propel the Huskies ahead of Oregon in our power ratings for the first time in weeks.

2. Oregon (10-1/7-1)

Last week: 1

Result: won at Arizona State 49-13

Next up: vs. Oregon State (Friday, 5:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: Current view of the Northwest powerhouses: If the Ducks and Huskies played 10 times on a neutral field — for example, a grassy meadow in the shadow of Mount St. Helens — they would each win five. So the advantage here goes to UW, which has a better resume.

3. Arizona (8-3/6-2)

Last week: 4

Result: beat Utah 42-18

Next up: at Arizona State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: Arizona will know what's at stake long before it takes the field in Tempe. If Oregon wins Friday night, the Wildcats won't have a path to the conference championship. If Oregon loses Friday night, then everything's a stake. That could impact the betting line, where Arizona is currently favored by 12.5 points.

4. Oregon State (8-3/5-3)

Last week: 3

Result: lost to Washington 22-20

Next up: at Oregon (Friday, 5:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: There's undoubtedly a hint of disappointment for OSU fans following the loss to UW and the resulting elimination from the Pac-12 title race. But for perspective on the season, consider this: The three losses are by a grand total of eight points, with two coming to teams ranked by the AP and CFP.

5. UCLA (7-4/4-4)

Last week: 7

Result: won at USC 38-20

Next up: vs. Cal (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: Awfully shrewd of Chip Kelly to leak to the media that his job was in jeopardy in order to engender sympathy and spur the Bruins to rally around their coach in the game that matters most. (We're joking, of course. But the saga could not have played out in better fashion for Kelly.)

6. Utah (7-4/4-4)

Last week: 5

Result: lost at Arizona 42-18

Next up: vs. Colorado (12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)

Comment: Our unofficial count determined Utah had eight all-conference players unavailable Saturday because of injury, and you could make the case the total was actually a tick higher. Incredible.

7. USC (7-5/5-4)

Last week: 6

Result: lost to UCLA 38-20

Next up: Idle

Comment: Lincoln Riley has 10 months to revamp his defense in time for USC's next conference game … in Ann Arbor.

8. Cal (5-6/3-5)

Last week: 8

Result: won at Stanford 27-15

Next up: at UCLA (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: No matter what happens at UCLA or with a possible bowl game, the Bears have a combination of quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) and offensive coordinator (Jake Spavital) they can feel good about. And it has been years since we could make that statement without hesitation.

9. Washington State (5-6/2-6)

Last week: 12

Result: beat Colorado 56-14

Next up: at Washington (1 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: We'd argue that WSU's recovery from the midseason slump actually began in the fourth quarter at Cal two weeks ago, with the momentum continuing into the Friday wipeout of Colorado. Over those five quarters, WSU scored 71 points.

10. Arizona State (3-8/2-6)

Last week: 9

Result: lost to Oregon 49-13

Next up: vs. Arizona (12:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: Just two years ago, the Sun Devils were favored by 20 points in the Territorial Cup. Now, they are 12.5-point underdogs. The stunning reversal of fortunes can be attributed equally to quality coaching in Tucson and administrative mismanagement in Tempe.

11. Stanford (3-8/2-7)

Last week: 11

Result: lost to Cal 27-15

Next up: vs. Notre Dame (4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)

Comment: The Cardinal is 5-22 in conference play from 2021-23, its worst three-year mark since the early 2000s. Apparently, all that Stanford brain power was used to build a time machine.

12. Colorado (4-7/1-7)

Last week: 10

Result: lost at WSU 56-14

Next up: at Utah (12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)

Comment: Barring a massive upset in Salt Lake City, where the visitors are 22-point underdogs, Colorado will end 2023 in the same position in the Hotline's power ratings that it finished 2022. Were the past three months simply much ado about nothing? Not necessarily. The Buffs were better, but so was the conference.

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