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PROVO — BYU notched its fourth straight 2-0 start with a 41-16 win over Southern Utah.
After a low-scoring opener against Sam Houston State, the passing offense came to life with 348 passing yards and four scores. Jay Hill's defense held Southern Utah to just 3 points in the first half, and special teams blocked a punt to round out a complete team win in all three phases.
BYU now enters the toughest schedule in school history, with ten straight Power Five opponents. While they have done a nice job of taking on Power Five challenges during the 11-year independence era, even those schedules had just four, five or six big games. This week-to-week gauntlet will be a measuring stick for where BYU is as a program in their inaugural Power Five season.
Before Big 12 play kicks off, BYU gets a rematch against a 2022 opponent as they travel to Fayetteville to face the Arkansas Razorbacks (5:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN2).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Arkansas 52.5 (36th Power Five)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Arkansas 53.5 (31st Power Five)
2023 season: BYU (44th of 69 Power Five) | Arkansas (27th of 69 Power Five)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
After its 14-0 win over FBS-transition Sam Houston State, BYU climbed four spots in my 2023 Game Grader rankings, from 48th to 44th. The win over Southern Utah kept them right at 44th, as FCS games are not graded.
Arkansas finished 7-6 in 2022 but three of those losses were by one play at the goal line. The "game of inches" football phrase may be overused, but if it ever applied to a team's season it would be Arkansas last year. They debuted at No. 29 in my 2023 preseason Game Grader, and started 2-0 to move up two spots to No. 27.
The Cougars and Razorbacks met last year in Provo, with Arkansas winning 52-35 (+173 in yardage).
Arkansas with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Arkansas offense (2022): 14th of 69 Power Five
Arkansas offense (2023) yards/play: 52nd of 69 Power Five
BYU defense (2022): 46th of 69 Power Five
BYU defense (2023) yards/play: 26th of 69 Power Five
Arkansas landed both their quarterback, KJ Jefferson, and running back, Rocket Sanders, onto my preseason All-SEC first team. Sanders was injured in the opener and has been ruled out for Saturday's game, along with starting receiver Sam Mbake.
Jefferson has lived up to the hype and currently sits at No. 2 in the SEC in QB Rating but is also a game-changer in the run game. His 250-pound frame trucks defenders; and he is especially effective in the short-yardage spots on third and fourth down.
BYU's new-look defense under Hill is off to a strong start, but this will be the first real test. BYU is in the national top 10 for rushing defense (61 yards/game) and in the top 20 for pass defense (QB Rating), but Arkansas is a whole new level of opposing talent.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2022): 24th of 69 Power Five
BYU offense (2023) yards/play: 56th of 69 Power Five
Arkansas defense (2022): 60th of 69 Power Five
Arkansas defense (2023) yards/play: 12th of 69 Power Five
Kedon Slovis shook off the Week 1 performance by tossing four touchdowns and 348 yards off of 22-of-32 (69%) passing. Starting receiver Keanu Hill's return to the lineup certainly helped — Hill caught all three of his targets for 41 yards and a score — while Isaac Rex went for 112 and tied the school record for touchdowns by a tight end.
The rushing offense struggled to get going against Southern Utah. Their 2.0 yards/carry average is an FBS-worst so far in 2023 against FCS opponents. Even with the roster turnover in the trenches, I am shocked at BYU's lack of a run push.
The passing offense will have to lead again Saturday. Arkansas was one of the worst passing defenses in college football last year, placing in the national bottom 10 of several stat categories.
The coordinator change from Barry Odom to Travis Williams brought a scheme shift from their DB-heavy 3-2-6 to a more traditional four-man front; however, that shift has not paid dividends on the stat sheet, as Arkansas is currently ranked dead last in my opponent-adjusted passing defense metric. Yes, it is a small, two-game sample size so far, but it does not appear to be an overnight fix.
Game prediction
Even without Sanders in the backfield, the Arkansas offense has more firepower than BYU's first two opponents combined. Jefferson is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and has the ability to single-handedly take over a game.
BYU's defense has held serve so far against lower-tier opponents, but now need to prove the progress against a big-time program and quarterback. After allowing 33 points/game vs. Power Five opponents last year, this still remains a question.
Arkansas 33 | BYU 20
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Brett Ciancia
