Pick Six Previews: BYU offense to take step forward against Southern Utah

PROVO — BYU's first game as a Power Five football program started with perfection from both sides of the ball. In front of 59,000 blue-clad fans, the defense got a three-and-out, and then the offense marched down the field 50 yards for its first touchdown of the season.

After that start, the fireworks stopped — at least, offensively — as BYU's next eight drives mustered zero points. Instead, it was actually BYU's defense that led the charge and completed the program's first shutout against an FBS opponent since 2012 (47-0 vs. Hawaii).

Before its 10-game stretch of Power Five opponents, BYU draws an FCS opponent and an opportunity to develop the offense more than what it showed in the opener. BYU hosts the Southern Utah Thunderbirds Saturday afternoon in LaVell Edwards Stadium (1 p.m. MDT, ESPN+).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Southern Utah N/A — FCS
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Southern Utah N/A — FCS
2023 season: BYU (44th of 69 Power Five) | Southern Utah N/A — FCS

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021, and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.

After its 14-0 win over Sam Houston State, BYU climbed four spots in my 2023 Game Grader rankings, from 48th up to 44th. BYU's win on the field, and Game Grader score, was bolstered by an elite defensive performance. Among teams that played FBS opponents, only Ohio State and Texas allowed fewer yards than the 185 that BYU gave up against Sam Houston State.

Southern Utah went 6-34 overall from 2018-21 before last season's five-win campaign by new head coach DeLane Fitzgerald changed the momentum of the program. In the 2022 season finale, Southern Utah notched a league win over BYU's 2023 opening opponent Sam Houston State. Last week, Southern Utah fought Arizona State to a 24-21 battle in Tempe and showed they can compete with FBS opponents.

The Cougars and Thunderbirds have only met once before on the gridiron, with BYU winning the 2016 matchup 37-7.

Southern Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Southern Utah offense (2022): 51st of 130 FCS teams
BYU defense (2022): 46th of 69 Power Five
BYU defense (2023) yards/play: 7th of 69 Power 5

Jay Hill was a nominee for my "Coordinator of the Week" award at Pick Six Previews. He took over a defense that went through a midseason collapse and coordinator firing, installed his aggressive, attacking scheme, and returned the unit to strong fundamentals. The BYU defense not only pitched the program's first FBS shutout in over a decade, they also didn't allow the Sam Houston State offense to cross the 50-yard line.

The linebacker duo of Ben Bywater and Max Tooley was as strong as expected, while cornerbacks Jakob Robinson and Eddie Heckard impressed. Robinson had two interceptions — picking up right from where he left off in December's New Mexico Bowl — and Heckard added a pick and impact hits.

The Cougars will line up against a familiar face at quarterback. Justin Miller grew up a BYU fan and was recruited to Provo before climbing the ranks to the FCS level. Miller is now a fourth-year starter for the Thunderbirds and has amassed 46 passing touchdowns, with a sharp 64% completion rate and 7,000+ career yards. He is a team strength along with their dynamic, veteran receiver trio of Tim Patrick, Isaiah Wooden and Ethan Bolingbroke.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense (2022): 24th of 69 Power Five
BYU offense (2023) yards/play: 65th of 69 Power Five
Southern Utah defense (2022): 80th of 130 FCS teams

It was an underwhelming debut for both new quarterback Kedon Slovis and the revamped offensive line. The pass game simply did not click, and Slovis posted just 145 passing yards and a very low 4.4 yards per attempt. It is worth noting that two of BYU's receiver trio — Keanu Hill and Kody Epps — were out of the lineup and remain uncertainties for Saturday.

Instead, a surprise star emerged in running back LJ Martin. The staff turned to him in the second half and rode the "hot hand" as he posted 91 yards on 16 carries — both are the most in a BYU true freshman debut since Jamaal Williams in 2012.

Southern Utah showed a lot of four-man fronts against Arizona State, and often lined up six along the line — before dropping two in coverage — to present the offensive line and quarterback with disguised, confusing looks pre-snap. They feature a strong, experienced linebacker trio, a program star at defensive tackle in Robert Horsey, and a secondary packed with former FBS transfers.

Game prediction

Southern Utah's near upset bid over the Pac-12's Arizona State was impressive but also ensures that BYU won't "overlook" their FCS opponent here. Look for another strong performance by Hill's defense and for the offense to take a step forward against what was statistically a below-average FCS defense last year.

BYU 31 | Southern Utah 13

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