Pick Six Previews: Utah to overpower Arizona's bottom-ranked defense

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah debuted at No. 14 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings after a 6-2 start and heads into November with mounting injury concerns and little margin for error.

The season-defining roadtrip to Oregon is still three weeks away, but in the meantime Utah hosts a pair of Pac-12 opponents with losing records: Arizona and Stanford.

Utah squeezed out a win over a similarly-rated team last Thursday night in Pullman and beat Washington State for the first time at Martin Stadium since 2011. The 21-17 game was tight the whole way and opened with one of the most shocking game-time injury surprises I'd ever seen.

Starting quarterback Cam Rising led the team through warmups but ultimately did not play — which fooled the broadcasters and college football media everywhere. Rising suffered a minor leg injury in the USC game, but everyone assumed the extra bye week time plus his pregame performance signaled a return to the starting lineup.

Backup quarterback Bryson Barnes was an efficient 17-of-27 passing and led the Utes to the win against the league's top defense. Tight end Dalton Kincaid (seven catches, 56 yards, one touchdown) and Jaylon Glover (20 carries, 76 yards, one touchdown) combined for 27 touches — more than the other backs and receivers combined (23).

Morgan Scalley's defense deserves some credit, too, for containing Washington State's running threat and for generating enough pass rush to disrupt their "Coug Raid" pass attack.

The defense will need another strong performance Saturday, as Arizona brings an even more explosive offense, and an even more dynamic quarterback, to Rice-Eccles Stadium (5:30pm MDT, Pac-12 Networks). Utah needs this win to stay in contention for the Pac-12 championship game, which scrapped the traditional North/South divisions to go with a No. 1 vs. No. 2 title format.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Arizona 27.3 (61st of 66 Power Five)
2021 season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Arizona 27.8 (59th of 66 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 67.1 (14th) | Arizona 36.3 (53rd of 66 Power Five)

Utah dropped two spots in 2022 Game Grader from No. 12 to No. 14 after the close win over Washington State. That is more a testament to how tight the Top 15 teams are right now, with many moving parts, rather than a perceived knock on Utah.

Arizona checks in at No. 53 in 2022 Game Grader, which is slightly better than its 2021 grade, as well as its 3-year average. In head coach Jedd Fisch's first season, Arizona went 1-11 but were close in several games, and took eight of those games into the fourth quarter within a score.

Fisch then went and shockingly signed a Top 25 recruiting class and inked the Pac-12 offensive freshman of the year — quarterback Jayden de Laura — via the transfer portal.

Arizona with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona offense: 20th of 66 Power Five
Utah defense: 41st of 66 Power Five

Despite its 3-5 record, Arizona currently holds a Top 20 spot in offensive metrics and is only behind the league's playoff contenders Oregon (7), USC (8), and UCLA (11). Utah's defense struggled with the two they've faced and will need to disrupt the pass game like they did last Thursday.

Jayden de Laura is following up his award-winning 2021 season by leading the Pac-12 South in passing yards per game (332 yards) but his overall QB rating takes a hit due to his gunslinger nature. He leads the league with eight interceptions thrown, but he's still been strong enough to keep Arizona competitive in most games despite their struggling defense.

Keep an eye out for another transfer player in star receiver Jacob Cowing (UTEP), who immediately changed the Arizona receiver room. He averages 100+ yards per game and is tied with Kincaid for the most touchdown receptions in the conference.

Utah will be tested in all facets here, as Arizona's offensive line ranks in the Top 25 of both the Run Push and Pass Protection metrics via Pick Six Previews.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 24th of 66 Power Five
Arizona defense: 66th of 66 Power Five

The biggest storyline is the status of Rising; and if last game taught us anything, this is a complete unknown. The conventional guess is that if he was healthy enough to lead the pregame warmups last Thursday, an additional nine days should have him healed and back in the lineup.

Kincaid is questionable to play after leaving the Washington State game, running back Tavion Thomas' off-field status is unknown, and, of course, All-America candidate Brant Kuithe is done for the year. The injuries are piling up and have affected Utah's top four offensive players.

The good news is that this week they face the lowest-rated defense in Power Five. Arizona allows 37 points per game and 7.1 yards per play, which is also dead last.

Utah will be able to run the ball effectively and control some clock to slow down Arizona's offense. This is the old Utah formula that worked for years, and depending on some injury variables, could be the perfect strategy here Saturday.

Game prediction

Utah has won five straight against the Wildcats — the last three by an average of 23 points. Arizona will get their explosive long-yard chunk plays, but Utah's defense will win in the red zone and force de Laura into some interceptions. Meanwhile, the Utah offense will dominate the time-of-possession and overpower Arizona's bottom-ranked defense.

No. 14 Utah 41 | Arizona 23

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