Cougar Tracks: Greed is Good

We've all heard the tale: the coach tells his turnover-prone player to start toting the football everywhere he goes--around the house, to class, to bed--just to get used to hanging on to the ball and not letting it go.

Heading into Saturday's game at Utah, BYU's offensive players may want to adopt the same approach, if not literally, then figuratively, because in the Bronco Mendenhall era (seven games; 2005 through 2011), BYU's turnover trouble has been the single-most relative determinant in the Cougars' 3-4 performance against the rival Utes.

*******

In the three BYU wins, the Cougars have turned the ball over only twice, while forcing three Utah turnovers, for a turnover margin of +1.

In BYU's four losses, the Cougars have coughed it up 18 times, with five turnovers forced, for a -13 margin.

We could really just stop right there. Those numbers alone should tell you what BYU needs most to do (or not do) on Saturday at Rice-Eccles.

In the last seven BYU-Utah games, the team with the edge in turnover margin is 5-0, with BYU winning the two games in which turnover totals were even (2006 and 2007). In other words, if BYU doesn't lose the turnover battle, BYU wins the game--at least, that has been true for every BYU-Utah meeting during Mendenhall's tenure.

Key number one: BYU needs to be greedy with the football--DO NOT let it go.

*******

Another strong correlation occurs in the rushing stats. The team with the edge in rush yardage has won five of the last seven meetings, while the team with more passing yards is 2-5.

Interestingly, BYU has actually run for more yards per game in the four losses (116.5) than in the three wins (113.3), so it's as much about what you allow the other team do on the ground. Over the last seven meetings, the game winner has had an average of 36 more rushing yards than the opponent.

Outliers:

BYU had the rushing edge of 106 yards in 2008, and got smoked, 48-24. Being minus-six in the turnover margin (as BYU was that night) can undo a lot of good on the ground.

BYU was minus-45 on the ground in the 2006 meeting; all it took to win that day was a little Beck-to-Harline magic.

--

You may have heard that the last time BYU beat Utah by more than seven points was back in 1996. In that 37-17 win (in Salt Lake City), BYU ran for 366 yards; since 1972, that's BYU's second-highest rush yardage total in a game against Utah (BYU ran for 454 yards in the 1986 meeting).

Key number two: run it to win it (stopping the run is also very helpful).

*******

Holding the advantage in average starting field position has generally been a strong indicator of success in the Mendenhall era (53-6 when holding the ASFP egde), but over the last seven BYU-Utah meetings, the correlation has been somewhat negligible; the team with the ASFP advantage is 4-3. BYU has been on the negative side of starting field position in five of the seven meetings, and went 2-3 in those five games.

Special teams are of course a huge component of average starting field position, and in the last two consecutive losses to Utah, BYU has had numerous special teams issues, not limited to:

2011: 15.8 yard avg kickoff return, kickoff out-of-bounds, lost fumble on a kickoff, allowed 13.7 yards/Utah punt return (36.3 yds net punt).

2010: 11.8 yard avg kickoff return, turnover on a punt (hit BYU player, recovered by Utah), short kickoffs (to the 24- and 20-yard line), had would-be game-winning field goal blocked.

Key number three: BYU's special teams need to be special on Saturday.

*******

Here's how some of the factors break down, in BYU wins and Utah wins:

Related topics