Owens leads Love in new poll


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SALT LAKE CITY — With the election just over a week away, a new poll released Monday shows Democrat Doug Owens with a slight lead for the first time over Republican Mia Love in the 4th District congressional race.

"I don't pay too much attention to what's going on there," Love told members of the Deseret News and KSL editorial boards Monday when asked about the new poll from BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.

But Love did raise questions about the methodology of the online poll that found nearly 46 percent of respondents would vote for Owens compared with just over 42 percent for her. The poll was made public without a margin of error.

The suggestion that the race may be shifting came as Love began airing a new TV commercial featuring President Barack Obama that tells voters, "We can do better than the policies of Obama and his Democrat candidates."

Owens, who said the new poll shows "it's a neck-and-neck race," also launched a new TV commercial. His promises voters he will be a "strong and independent voice" for them because "that's how we do things in Utah."

The Utah Democratic Party is paying to run some of Owens' commercials, part of about $90,000 the party is spending to help his campaign, according to Utah State Democratic Party Executive Director Matt Lyon.

Love and Owens are vying to replace retiring Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah. Love, who would be the nation's first black Republican congresswoman if elected, lost to Matheson in 2012 by less than 800 votes in a race that attracted national attention.

Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the BYU center, calculated the poll's 4th District results as having a margin of error of about plus or minus 6.4 percent and should be viewed only as showing the race is close.


The key outcome here is that neither candidate has a substantial lead in this race at this point.

–Chris Karpowitz


"The key outcome here is that neither candidate has a substantial lead in this race at this point," he said. "That could change as campaigning heats up and the word gets out that it seems to be a close race and causes people to pay more attention."

Karpowitz said because Love is substantially ahead of her Democratic opponent in fundraising and name recognition, it's surprising that "hasn't translated over yet in the behavior of voters."

Almost 7,000 voters recruited at polling places across Utah on Election Day since 2004 were emailed a copy of the poll, and 733 completed it between Oct. 15-22, including 236 voters in the 4th District.

Love's campaign manager, Dave Hansen, called the poll "so bogus."

Hansen said Love's internal polling put her 8 to 10 points ahead of Owens as of last Saturday. Her internal polling is being done by a company formed by Hansen, as well as a pair of former leaders of the BYU center.

Earlier this month, Love released an internal poll that gave her a 19 point lead over Owens. At the same time, Owens said his internal polling had him just 3 points behind Love. An August UtahPolicy.com poll gave Love a 12 point lead.

Love told the Deseret News and KSL editorial boards that her opponent's ads are "coming after me personally. That's someone who's claiming they can reach across the aisle, but completely doing everything they can to beat up the other person."

Her latest TV commercial that begins with a clip of Obama declaring while he's not on the ballot this fall, his polices are, is not negative, Love said.

"There are a lot of people who'll derive from it what they want to derive," she said.

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Owens said the commercial is "unfortunate and disappointing. They're trying to run a smear campaign instead of talking about issues." He said he expects voters to see past what he described as name-calling.

At the editorial board, Love fielded a wide range of questions, including whether she still wanted to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education, a position she took in her 2012 race against Matheson.

Love declined to give a yes or no answer.

"I'm not making blanket statements any longer. The 4th District doesn't want me to make blanket statements. They want me to be specific," she said. "I'm looking at what we have the votes to realistically do."

That includes eliminating disparities between the salaries of teachers and Education Department employees, opposing "one-size-fits all programs" from Washington, and "pushing as much of the decision making to the local level as possible."

Love said, however, she was "not backing away from the statement that I've made. I'm just am being more specific about it." She said "making a blanket statement is very difficult because some people take it as not being pro-education."

That's not true, Love said. "When you make statements like that, you have to make sure that you're very clear. And I am pro-public education. I just want it to work better. I'm interested in results, and the results that we're right seeing now isn't working."

Asked about whether she would speak out on social justice issues involving people of color, Love said she always will speak out "when it is clear that anyone, not matter what color, race or gender they are" is being treated unjustly."

She said she sees herself as an equal and the best thing she can do is treat people with the respect they deserve.

"I think that's an area where I can be an example," Love said.

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