Incumbents Could Still Face Battle in Fall Elections

Incumbents Could Still Face Battle in Fall Elections


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John Daley ReportingMatthew Burbank, Univ. of Utah Political Science Professor: "Ordinarily, if you're going to see incumbents have real problems within their party, it's usually going to show up in conventions rather than in the primary."

The primary election did dish out some surprises. Utahns in several districts will get new lawmakers. Primary voters rejected three legislative veterans and left another clinging for hope of a reversal.

Incumbents have such a major advantage, particularly when it comes to fundraising, that it's news when they lose. Yesterday some veterans did just that.

In with the new, out with the old. That's one theme this election day, as voters take brand new computerized machines out for a spin with few problems reported. It's also a bit of a trend for Utah lawmakers.

One prominent longtime veteran GOP Rep. David Ure, a rancher from Kamas, failed in his bid to take a Senate seat.

Elsewhere, three other Republicans faced tough sledding. Weber County Senator Dave Thomas was beat by Ogden's Police Chief, with charter schools the marquee issue. Utah County Rep. Jim Ferrin lost in a close one and Rep. Peggy Wallace from West Jordan is behind by 24 votes in a race that won't be final until county officials finish counting hundreds of provisional ballots.

All in all, it's no election day earthquake, but still noteworthy to political observers, like U of U political scientist Matthew Burbank.

Matthew Burbank, Uni. of Utah Associate Professor: "Usually incumbents are better off in primaries because of their better name recognition."

Burbank says to know if there's a strong move to oust incumbents, we may need to wait until the general election in the fall, when underdog Democrats hope to score upsets.

Matthew Burbank, Uni. of Utah Associate Professor: "If there is an anti-incumbent swell, where we're going to see that probably is in September and October, and then November, right before the mid-term elections."

The day's projected dogfight, the Third District Congressional fight pitting incumbent Chris Cannon versus developer John Jacob, fizzled as Jacob's efforts to hammer Cannon on the immigration issue weren't enough to overcome the five-termer's experience.

Matthew Burbank, Uni. of Utah Associate Professor: "The number of voters, even in the republican primary, who cared strongly about immigration as a major issue is only a minority of those voters."

Republicans have solid majorities in each of Utah's legislative houses. Democrats hope an anti-incumbent fever hits in the fall and allows them to pick up a few seats; any more than that would be a big surprise.

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