SALT LAKE CITY — The Utah Jazz are going to the playoffs.

I know that’s been a dangerous probability to rely on recently. Last season, the popular analytics website 538 predicted the Jazz had an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs with just five games remaining in the regular season. The Jazz were out of the playoff chase four games later.

As of Feb. 8, 2017, the Jazz had a better than 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs in the coming months. I’m not willing to bet my mortgage on that near guarantee of a prediction, but with a 10-game lead on ninth place, and 26 games to go, I’m fairly confident the Jazz will appear in the NBA’s postseason.

What happens then? That’s what I’m trying to figure out.

What was billed as a preview of a potential Jazz first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers Monday night, quickly turned into a nightmare scenario for the Jazz. The Jazz trailed by double digits at halftime to the Chris Paul-less Clippers, in what was one of the least-competitive contests of the season. The Jazz lost by 16 points, even after holding the Clippers to just 12 fourth-quarter points.

The Clippers have won 17 of their last 18 games against the Jazz after Monday’s massacre. It’s safe to say, the Clippers might be the Jazz's least desirable matchup in the first round of the 2017 playoffs.

Of the remaining teams currently slated to make the playoffs — the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Nuggets — who would be the best first-round matchup for the Jazz in April?

The Warriors sit at 46-9 on the season and are, without question, the most talented team in the NBA. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, the Warriors are 13-1 against the Jazz, with the lone win coming March 21, 2015. Jazz fans need not feel bad about wanting to avoid the Warriors in the postseason, every team in the league is looking to avoid that matchup as long as possible. Luckily for the Jazz, there is a very small likelihood these teams would meet before the second round.

Related:

How good are the Jazz when everyone is available?

It seems like in every Jazz game, there's a different set of starters who can play. What's the Jazz's record depending on who's available?

The Jazz haven’t fared much better against the Spurs. The Spurs have won 10 of 13 since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, and the Jazz have lost 8 of 9 playoff games dating back to 2007. While the Jazz have exchanged blowout victories on one another's home floor’s this season, a Gregg Popovich-led team shouldn’t be high on any Jazz fan’s wishlist.

The Jazz optimism about facing the Houston Rockets should be considerably higher than any of the previously mentioned Clippers, Warriors or Spurs. Over their last 13 games, the Jazz are 5-8 against the James Harden-led Rockets.

While a sub .500 record against any team doesn’t exactly encourage excitement about a playoff series, the Jazz have won three of their previous four matchups. Houston head coach Mike D’Antoni has the Rockets playing a different brand of basketball than in previous seasons, but his playoff record as a head coach hasn’t been stellar. His teams have won just 26 of 59 postseason matchups, including losing 12 of his last 13 playoff games.

Similarly, the Jazz are 5-9 against the Memphis Grizzlies since the 2013-14 season. This series would be a bitter defensive matchup between two teams that have the ability to win ugly games. In the past 14 meetings, more than 100 points have been allowed just four times, and never by both teams in the same game. The Jazz lost 3 of 4 meetings with Memphis this season, but have had their full complement of starters only once in these matchups, a loss at Memphis Dec. 18.

The Oklahoma City Thunder might be the hardest matchup to diagnose a potential playoff matchup with. While the Jazz have won just four of their last 14 meetings, the Thunder had Kevin Durant for 12 of those. So far this season, the Jazz and Thunder have split their two meetings, both played in Utah. The Jazz crushed the Thunder in December, before losing a close matchup late in January.

There aren’t many scenarios in which these two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs. The Jazz and the Thunder would have to win games to climb into the fourth and fifth seed, or the Jazz would have to overtake the Rockets for the No. 3 seed, while the Thunder jump to sixth.

Equally unlikely to a meeting with the Warriors in the first round, I see almost no scenario when the Jazz face the currently eighth-seeded Nuggets at any point in these playoffs. While the Nuggets have an emerging star in Nikola Jokic, they are 8.5 games behind the Jazz for the No. 5 seed. They would have to leap the Thunder, Grizzlies, and either the Jazz, or the Clippers to jump to the No. 5 seed, and would have to overtake both of them to get to the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are 10-6 against the Nuggets since 2013-14, and split the series this season. Each team protected their home floor this season, so home-court advantage could be key, but again, the likelihood of this matchup is slim to none.

After Monday’s trouncing, a matchup with the Clippers seems particularly unappetizing, as should a matchup with Warriors. Both teams would likely make quick work of the Jazz, and could leave a bad taste in the mouths of players considering re-signing with the team in the offseason.

A matchup with the Spurs likely wouldn’t turn out much better, but with the Jazz having shown an ability to win in San Antonio this season, they might at least have a hint of confidence heading into the series. The Spurs might not have the top-end star power they used to, but are riddled with championship experience.

As far as realistic matchups go, the Jazz would have a puncher's chance against either Houston or Memphis. Both teams play drastically different styles, and while the Rockets uptempo offense would test the Jazz defense, Houston wouldn’t prevent the Jazz from running their offensive sets. The Grizzlies play a pace that is similar to the Jazz, and most games would be decided below 100 points. Unfortunately for the Jazz, they are just 8-15 in games this season in which they score fewer than triple digits.

Of the seven contenders in the Western Conference to make the playoffs, the Jazz's best bet for winning a series will likely depend more on matchup than on seeding. Looking at recent records, a meeting with the Rockets, likely requiring the Jazz to fall to the No. 6 seed in the West, might be the best fit. While home-court advantage has traditionally been a strong indicator for playoff series wins, avoiding bad matchups against the Clippers and Spurs could be just as important.

Related topics