Kudos for Carlino; Cougars gaining momentum


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Since West Coast Conference play got underway, BYU point guard Matt Carlino has done more than raise the level of his game; he has played like an all-league performer.

Carlino has scored in double figures in every conference game, and is among the league leaders in scoring, assists and steals. Monday, he picked up his first-ever WCC Player of the Week award, coming off of two games in which he was both a game-sealer (final five points of BYU's two-point win at Pepperdine) and wheeler-dealer (season-high 28 points, 6 assists in the homecourt blowout win over Santa Clara.

Carlino's pre-conference stats pale in comparison to his WCC-play numbers:

Matt Carlino, Pre-conference and conference play

Games playedMPGPPGFG%3PFG%FT%RPGAPGTOs/gameA/TO RatioSteals/game
Non-conference games1423.47.238.922.066.72.93.92.21.81.4
Conference games1032.717.146.340.077.13.95.22.42.23.0

As positive a development as Carlino's conference-play performance has been the recent resurgence of Brandon Davies. A sprained ankle suffered on December 27th precipitated a four-week, eight-game slide, during which Davies' numbers dipped from 20.3 ppg and 8.2 rpg, to 17.8 ppg and 7.2 rpg. The drop was not dramatic, but it was noticeable. A 14-point, six-rebound outing at Gonzaga included a 5-for-13 shooting performance, zero assists, four turnovers and four fouls. He was badly outplayed by the Zags' Kelly Olynyk.

Since that night in Spokane, Davies has bounced back and appeared more like his pre-conference self, recording three consecutive double-doubles, for the first time in his Cougar career. In the last three games, Davies is averaging 18.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg, while shooting 54% from the field.

Tyler Haws, meantime, remains Mr. Consistent; more on him in this space later in the week.

*******

BYU's 2-0 week extended the Cougars' current win streak to a modest three games, while the team bumped up its Points Available Percentage (PAP) from the previous week's numbers. The Cougars' 48.2% performance is slightly down from last season, but ahead of the two lowest team PAP numbers of the Rose era, in 2010-11 (48.1%) and 2007-08 (47.4%).

Individually, Josh Sharp has climbed to the top of the charts, while Haws' numbers remain impressive for a guard who leads the team in shots taken.

From an early season number that peaked at 61.9% and was as high as 59.8% at the turn of the year, Davies' PAP is still slipping, to a season-low of 56.3% this week. Davies is still ahead of last year's season-ending 54.7%.

Matt Carlino's numbers continue to climb; he has boosted his PAP in eight of the last nine weekly reports, to a season-high 43.7%. He finished last season at 41.8%.

Points Available Percentages for BYU Players (as of 02/04/2013)

RankPlayerGames PlayedMinutes Per GamePointsPoints AvailablePAP (%)Last PAP (%) 01/28PAP (%) DifferentialRank Last WeekRank Differential
1Josh Sharp2421.212621758.156.9+1.22+1
2Brandon Davies2428.443076456.356.8-0.53+1
3Tyler Haws2433.349694952.352.1+0.24+1
4Bronson Kaufusi84.14850.066.7-16.71-3
5Nate Austin2416.08820044.044.1-0.15Even
6Matt Carlino2427.327262243.742.4+1.37+1
7Brock Zylstra2424.116538243.243.4-0.26-1
8Anson Winder209.35111942.941.7+1.28Even
9Cory Calvert177.5379140.741.6-0.99Even
10Craig Cusick2418.88822139.839.4+0.411+1
11Agustin Ambrosino227.24912439.539.2+0.312+1
12Ian Harward194.5225738.640.0-1.410-2
13Raul Delgado198.14512835.236.0-0.813Even
<b>TEAM</b><b>24</b><b>1873</b><b>3882</b><b>48.2</b><b>48.1</b><b>+0.1</b>

*******

Many of BYU's national numbers and ratings are impressive, ranking among the best in NCAA Division I:

BYU in NCAA Division I Stats, Top 50 (as of 02/04/13)

CategoryActualRanking
Scoring Offense78.0 ppg14th
Scoring Margin+10.3 ppg43rd
FG Percentage46.249th
Assists/Game16.412th
Assist/Turnover Ratio1.3422nd
Steals/Game9.022nd
Offensive Efficiency*108.049th
Defensive Efficiency*91.147th
Tempo*71.4 poss/gm15th
Turnover Percentage*17.226th
Offensive Reb. Percentage Allowed*26.9%22nd
Defensive Steal Percentage*12.3%39th

*Pomeroy ratings on kenpom.com

--

BYU in National Ratings (as of 02/04/13)

RatingRank
Jerry Palm RPI37
ESPN BPI (Basketball Power Index)50
Ken Pomeroy39
Jeff Sagarin42
Strength of Schedule (Palm)67

BYU is currently 3-6 against teams in the RPI Top 100, with at least two more regular season opportunities to augment that mark--at St. Mary's on Feb. 21st, and home to No. 6 Gonzaga on Feb. 28th. BYU could meet one or both teams again at the conference tournament in Las Vegas.

Depending on which bracketologist you consult, BYU is either barely in the field of 68 or barely on the outside looking in.

BYU's RPI is certainly in the neighborhood of NCAA Tournament selection, as last season, BYU qualified with a record of 25-8 and and RPI of 45.

Currently at 18-6, BYU could very well have an almost identical record on Selection Sunday, with an RPI in the same vicinity. Over last five NCAA Tournaments, only 12 teams ranked 45th or higher in RPI missed the tournament. In other words, 94.7% of the teams ranked 45 or higher in RPI on Selection Sunday made the tournament field over the previous five seasons. As the 2012-13 campaign nears its conclusion, keep an eye on the Cougars' RPI--particularly if it should dip below 45.

RPI Top 50 is still relatively safe territory; over the last five NCAA Tournaments, 91.2% of teams in the Top 50 have qualified for the tourney field, but of the teams ranked 46-50 in RPI, only 50% have punched their Dance ticket.

Noting the 3-6 mark against Top 100 RPI teams, last season's record was 5-6. While BYU could use a few more notable wins, the Cougars don't have any bad losses. Last season, BYU lost two games to sub-100 RPI teams; in 2012-13, every one of BYU's six losses has been against teams ranked 61 or better in RPI.

Seven of BYU's 18 wins have come away from the Marriott Center, and BYU will be favored to pick up at least three more away/neutral wins between now and Selection Sunday. Double-digit wins away from home look good on the postseason portfolio.

BYU could clearly use a regular season win over St. Mary's and/or Gonzaga. Last season, lacking marquee non-conference victories, the Cougars' home win over the Zags weighed heavily in BYU's favor with the selection committee. This season, a home win over a higher-ranked Gonzaga squad would carry even more weight.

Last season, BYU went only 1-4 against St. Mary's and Gonzaga, and still made the NCAA Tournament. So far this season, BYU is 0-2, with the likelihood of at least three more games against those two teams. While Matthew Dellavedova's last-second game-winner in Provo last month looms particularly large at present, there exists the potential for BYU to match or better last year's performance against that duo.

BYU has to manage manage the mine field of games at San Diego, then home to San Francisco, Portland and Utah State. Should the Cougars get through that stretch unscathed, they will take a seven-game win streak with them to Moraga, for what would be BYU's "Game of the Year." But at this time of year, aren't they all?

*******

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Greg Wrubell

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