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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Bird flu took a bite out of the turkey supply. Heavy rain washed out the pumpkin crop.
But Thanksgiving groceries likely won't cost Americans much more than last year, and nobody should have to miss gobbling down their favorite holiday foods.
The holiday season always generates stories about some items being in short supply or dramatically pricier. But markets have a way of balancing themselves out, particularly around this meal.
So even though bird flu wiped out 8 million turkeys — driving production down and wholesale prices up — you're in no danger missing out. These birds don't play by the usual rules of supply and demand.
According to Richard Volpe, a former government food price economist, it's because one of the most effective things grocers can do to lure holiday shoppers is offer cheap turkeys, even selling them at a loss.
Further shielding consumers is that most of the birds destined to grace Thanksgiving tables this year already were born, slaughtered and frozen before the outbreak. Frozen whole turkeys make up as much as three-quarters of the Thanksgiving market.
Record rains early in the growing season did slash pie-pumpkin yields by about 50 percent in Illinois, by far the country's top producer. But market leader Libby's still expects canned pumpkin supplies to last through Thanksgiving. And it says the shortage probably won't be felt until after the holiday baking season.
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163-r-16-(Sound of turkeys, on a farm)--Sound of turkeys on a farm. (12 Nov 2015)
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APPHOTO NY579: FILE - This Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2011, file photo, shows frozen turkeys on sale at a grocery store in Akron, N.Y. According to Richard Volpe, a professor at Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, Calif., and former retail food price economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, one of the most effective things grocers can do to lure holiday shoppers is offer cheap turkeys, even selling them at a loss. (AP Photo/David Duprey, File) (22 Nov 2011)
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APPHOTO MP201: In this Nov. 5, 2015, photo, Thanksgiving turkeys are shown at a Cub Foods store in Bloomington, Minn. Richard Volpe, a retail food price economist formerly with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said one of the most effective things supermarkets can do to lure holiday shoppers is to advertise cheap turkeys whose prices tend to be lowest around the holidays when demand is highest. (AP Photo/Jim Mone) (5 Nov 2015)
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