To see BYU's football future, look at Utah's past


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PROVO — Bronco Mendenhall and the BYU Cougars are on the horizon of a critical season, one where they see the hopes of their move away from the Mountain West Conference and into independence realized in the opponents on this year's schedule.

The month of September, starting on the road against Nebraska, returning home to play Boise State, before traveling to challenge UCLA and Michigan on the road, is arguably the toughest in all of college football. BYU plays its toughest November game since becoming an independent by playing the Missouri Tigers in Arrowheard Stadium, all while filling in the cracks with the likes of Cincinnati, East Carolina and Utah State. The football team will gain exposure for the university by playing across most of the country, against some of college football's biggest names.

Is BYU ready to take on such a daunting schedule? How does it stack up against last year's opponents?

The Cougars finished with a respectable 8-5 record, with every loss coming against a bowl eligible team, and without starting quarterback Taysom Hill after getting injured against Utah State. However, BYU did most of its winning over less than capable opponents. The combined record of the teams BYU beat was 34-65, with Houston being the only team BYU beat with a better than .500 winning percentage.

This season, BYU faces one of the country's tougher schedules, with opponents who last year finished with a combined record of 92-63. Only Michigan, San Jose State and Fresno State finished the season with a worse than .500 winning percentage. For BYU to meet or exceed last year's 8-5 record, it will have to fare far better against the winning teams on its schedule.

There is perhaps no better team for BYU to look at when navigating the jump in scheduling difficulty than former rival Utah, which made a similar leap in 2011. Like BYU, Utah left the Mountain West Conference in 2010, but instead of going independent, the Utes joined the expanding Pac-12. With a schedule made up of mostly MWC opponents, the Utes regularly found their schedules among the bottom half of college football strength of schedule rankings. That quickly flipped in the Pac-12, when the Utes found themselves facing USC, UCLA and two Arizona schools rather than New Mexico, Wyoming and UNLV.

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The Utes found success in their initial season of Pac-12 play, finishing with seven wins in the regular season, just missing out on a Pac-12 South title with a disappointing loss against Colorado to end the season. But it wasn't smooth sailing on their maiden voyage. The Utes lost their first four conference opponents by an average of 17.75 points, with their only wins over the season's first seven weeks coming against Montana State, BYU and Pittsburgh. The Utes lost starting quarterback Jordan Wynn in the fourth game of the season, and struggled with depth the rest of the season, choosing to ride breakout running back John White IV to victory in six of the team's final eight games.

The Utes' lack of depth truly shined through in 2012 after losing Wynn against Utah State in the second game of the season. White regressed from his surprising junior season, and the Utes limped to a 5-7 record in 2012 and finished with an identical record in 2013. It wasn't until 2014, after bringing in several high-profile transfers that Utah proved it was among the competitors among college football's finest.

With Taysom Hill at quarterback, BYU will likely make a bowl game this season as the Cougars feature an explosive offense, even after the loss of starting running back Jamaal Williams. However, successfully escaping the 2015 schedule as a bowl eligible team will mean little in 2016, as BYU's schedule ratchets up another notch, with teams like Arizona, Utah, Mississippi State and Michigan State jumping on the schedule, while carrying over UCLA, Boise State, Cincinnati and Utah State from this year's calendar. The Cougars will be without Hill, as well as standout wide receiver Mitch Mathews and versatile defender Bronson Kaufusi, as all three will attempt to make the leap to the NFL next season.

It's possible BYU continues its success since casting aside conference alignment, as the Cougars have gone a respectable 34-18 since leaving the MWC, albeit an uninspiring 9-10 against Power 5 opponents. If BYU is able to maintain its 8+ win average over the next several seasons, perhaps the depth chart is closer to college football's contenders than it appears currently, but if it falls short, it may soon feel a weight similar to the one recently lifted off the shoulders of BYU's neighbors to the north.


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About the Author: Ben Anderson ------------------------------

Ben Anderson is the co-host of Gunther in the Afternoon with Kyle Gunther on 1320 KFAN from 3-7, Monday through Friday. Read Ben's Utah Jazz blog at 1320kfan.com, and follow him on Twitter @BenKFAN.

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