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SALT LAKE CITY — The Pac-12 prides itself on winning 10 NCAA titles this last year — 488 in its 100 years of existence, which is the most of all conferences. But in the marquee sport for the conference — football — the Pac-12 was on the outside looking in this last season.
The Pac-12 had a record 10 teams go to a bowl game, but only six teams managed to conclude the season with a win. None of those teams, however, qualified for a spot in the College Football Playoffs. That’s a major problem for a Power 5 conference looking to shake off the perception that its overall level of competition is less than that of the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12.
In the third season of the College Football Playoff era, there is fear the Pac-12 could be left out for the second consecutive season.
Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott told media at this year’s media days event that he believes that as long as the teams in the conference have a comparable resume to that of the other teams in contention, the Pac-12 will be invited and has nothing to fear. He added that the conference’s philosophy of scheduling tough opponents will only help the cause for the Pac-12.
“The philosophy of our conference for a variety of reasons is to play the best, strongest schedule they reasonably can, nonconference, strongest conference schedule, nine games, championship game, and that if we've got comparable records with teams from other conferences, our teams will get the benefit of the doubt.”
But scheduling tough nonconference opponents or having a nine-game conference schedule doesn’t automatically bring in the wins and therefore a spot in the playoffs. The various nonconference schedules can bolster a resume, but a cannibalization of teams in conference play keeps the Pac-12 from an overall record needed to “compete” with teams from other Power 5 conferences.
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has been a proponent of equalizing the competition among Power 5 conferences, namely creating an equal number of games to be played in conference play.
“I think with as much at stake as there is, I think there needs to be a little more uniformity in the regular season, and I don't know who takes control of that, so is that the NCAA, is that the Power 5 presidents? I don't know how it goes down,” Whittingham said. “But there is — with the nine conference games — there's a chance to put another blemish on your record which could keep you out of the playoffs.”
Stanford is the favorite to come out of the Pac-12 as the team with the best opportunity to advance to the College Football Playoffs — Las Vegas gives the Cardinal a 28/1 odds to win the championship — after being voted by media as the team to win the Pac-12. But beyond the Cardinal, it’s a wide open, less certain race with the potential cannibalization of teams.
The Cardinal are likely to enter the season with a top 10 ranking in the preseason polls, but the rest of the conference should fall somewhere after the top 15 with far less certainty about its potential success.
In the last 10 seasons, the top four teams leading up the BCS Championship or the College Football Playoffs have been ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll in eight of those years. Last season was seemingly an anomaly with Clemson and Oklahoma winding up in the playoffs despite not being in the preseason top 10.
Although preseason projections are anything but accurate, it’s a good indication of team and conference success and ultimately a factor in the decision that lead up to the final rankings by the CFP committee members.
Should the Pac-12 be worried? Yes, unless Stanford has a near perfect season or some other team emerges as a viable contender quickly.
