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SALT LAKE CITY — Looking over the Jazz roster one thing is imminently clear; they lack a star. Gordon Hayward is one of the league’s most diverse players, Derrick Favors is one of the league’s best two-way big men and Rudy Gobert is one of the most imposing rim protectors.
Combined, they have no All-Star appearances, no All-NBA appearances and no championship rings. That’s not to say they aren’t talented; they are. They are also young and full of promise, but naturally fans wonder if a star is needed to make the next team from playoff contender to championship contender.
Unfortunately, in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes that will begin July 1, the Jazz simply aren’t a realistic option. The team isn’t close enough to contending to lure him away from Oklahoma City, and Salt Lake City isn’t exciting enough to provide a young superstar with the publicity to best benefit him financially.
The Jazz have had superstars in Salt Lake City before, most notably Karl Malone, John Stockton and Deron Williams. And they all came to Utah via the draft. So the team, and the fanbase, must once again hope the June 23 draft brings a franchise altering piece that can get them back to the Western Conference Finals.
The Jazz are rumored to have looked to move up to select a star in past drafts, most notably in 2014, when several media outlets reported that the Jazz may have been willing to move Favors, the No. 5 pick which eventually became Dante Exum, the No. 23 pick in that draft, which became Rodney Hood, and maybe even Alec Burks to select either Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins with the top overall pick. At some point in those discussions, either the Jazz or the Cavaliers didn’t feel they were getting equal value in return and backed out of the deal.
In the 2013 draft, the Jazz packaged the 14th pick and the 21st pick to move up to select Trey Burke with the ninth overall pick in the draft.
In retrospect, the Jazz are probably better off with Favors, Exum, Hood and Burks rather than having either Parker or Wiggins. And though neither player has risen to stardom, both Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng, who were selected with the picks the Jazz used to acquire Burke, are both better players than Burke, who found himself on the outside of the rotation looking in to end last season.
In short, trade up on draft night isn’t always a can’t miss option.
However, that’s not to diminish the value of a top-10 pick. Of the 15 All-NBA players this past season, two-thirds were top 10 picks. Only eight of the 26 All-Stars this year were picked outside of the top 10.
If the Jazz can move up for a reasonable price, they should do it, but what’s a reasonable price?
Looking at the Jazz assets, they have a roster full of tradeable players, both young veterans that can step in and help build a contender right away like Hayward, Favors and Burks. And also several young pieces with bright futures that could help a team expedite the rebuilding process without having to gamble on high-risk draft picks in Gobert, Hood, Lyles and Exum.
They also have a slew of future draft picks, owning the rights to all of their future first-round picks, and the rights to the Golden State Warriors first round pick next season and a 2018 first round pick from the Oklahoma City Thunder that is lottery protected.
If the Jazz are to make a trade using current roster pieces, they’d likely look at areas where they have depth with veterans and young talent. That would be at the power forward position with Favors and Lyles, and on the wing where they have Hayward, Hood and Burks.
It appears unlikely that the Jazz would move either Hayward or Favors, as it’s unclear whether any player in this draft could quickly replace the production they get from these two players. Lyles and Hood have enormous value for the Jazz, as the team has them on cost-controlled rookie contracts, but they also own the right to match their next contract on the restricted free agent market.
If the Jazz were to move Hood or Lyles, they would have to believe they were getting a player that was either capable of starting immediately, or being one of the first two players off the bench as a rookie, and have the upside to displace a current starter. Is it worth moving either Hood or Lyles, and the 12th pick the Jazz currently have to get a player that at best, would still be a gamble on whether they’d pan out?
Burks' contract, if he stays healthy, will be an enormous value over the next three seasons. Averaging just $10 million per season, with the salary cap rising dramatically, a veteran with his scoring prowess can provide big production at a low cost. Burks' ball-dominant style of play and reluctance to spread the floor could make him a key piece in trade discussions, though coming off back-to-back injury riddled seasons, allowing Burks another season to see his production rebound could increase his value further on the trade market.
The Jazz best assets are their first-round pick, and the first-round picks from the Warriors and the Thunder. Though the Thunder pick will likely be the higher of the two if it’s eventually conveyed as a first-round pick, there is a chance that it could become two second-round picks if the Thunder fail to qualify for the playoffs starting in 2018, which could happen if they lose Durant and Russell Westbrook over the next two summers.
The Warriors' pick will likely be in the high 20s, if not the last pick of the first round next season assuming they continue their blistering win pace, but is a guaranteed first-round pick and will be conveyed next season and likely has higher value in a potential trade.
Examining the Jazz trade pieces, should they attempt to move up into the top 10, a deal structured around the 12th overall pick this year, the Warriors' pick next summer and the Thunder pick in 2018 would be most ideal. As the Jazz often reminded the fanbase last summer that they were of the youngest teams in the league, continuing to add multiple young pieces every summer though valuable, isn’t always the best way to build a contender.
As high as the ceilings may be for Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, the consensus top two picks in this upcoming draft, neither are can’t-miss prospects worthy of a blockbuster deal for the Jazz.
However, if the Jazz can move into the top 10, say picks five through 10 using only this year's draft pick, and a combination of other teams' first-round picks owed to the Jazz, a player in that range could likely bring strong value to the rotation and is worth the risk of cashing in future assets.
The Jazz certainly have the pieces to make a blockbuster deal should they choose to, though this year’s draft likely doesn’t have the reward. If the Jazz choose to move up, a modest improvement might be the target without risking the team’s future potential.
