Cougar Tracks: Targeting Improvement

At 5-3, the BYU hoopsters are off to their most sluggish eight-game start since 2006, and while there is a lot of basketball left to play, early-season shooting numbers represent a bit of a red flag for the boys in blue.

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BYU's three-point percentage is pacing for a Rose-era low, a season after the 2011-12 squad set a new low-water mark from the arc. The Cougars' overall FG% (.450) is almost identical to the previous Rose-era low set in 2010-11 (.449).

In Ken Pomeroy's specialized statistical database, BYU's current national rankings in 2PFG% (50.3%, 82nd), 3PFG% (31.9%, 210th) and eFG% (49.6%; 135th) would all represent Rose-era lows; BYU's percentage of three-pointers relative to overall FG attempts (28.8%; 257th) would also be the lowest of the last eight seasons.

When ranked by PAP (Points Available Percentage), BYU's current performance is also on pace to set a new Rose-tenure low:

The current team is struggling in what I call the "50/40" category: the number of roster regulars shooting 50% or better on FGs, and regulars shooting 40% or better on 3PFGs.

Counting only players averaging 10+ minutes per game, BYU has only two players shooting 50%+ from the field and zero players shooting 40%+ from the arc. That combined number of two "50/40" occurrences would be a low for any roster in the Rose era.

(A 50% FG shooter counts as one notation, and 40% shooter 3PFG counts as one; if the same player is a 50/40, that is two notations in the "50/40" category):

Note: players need to average at least 10 minutes per game to be included in the calculation

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It is important to note that the season is still very young, and we are talking about a BYU team that has actually hit better than 50% of its shots in half of its games.

That's right: this team with a weak overall shooting profile has shot 52% or better four times in eight appearances, which can only mean that the Cougars' are certainly capable, and that their bad days are just really bad--and that has indeed been the case.

BYU has played five games in the state of Utah (including four at home), and three out-of-state (two neutral court games, one road game), and so far, when it comes to the Cougars' shooting numbers, it's location, location, location. And opponent, opponent, opponent.

BYU's three toughest games (and all three losses) have come against the three best teams the Cougars have faced, and all were played away from home. BYU's five weakest opponents were faced either at the Marriott Center or Energy Solutions Arena.

BYU in five wins (v. Tennessee St., Georgia St., UTSA, Cal State Northridge, Montana): 82.8 PPG, 51.2% FG, 38.8% 3PFG

BYU in three losses (v. Florida State, Notre Dame, at Iowa State): 66.7 PPG, 36.0% FG, 22.0% 3PFG

Clearly, there is a strong correlation between team performance and caliber of opponent, just as there is a notable tie between home and away success, particularly in shooting numbers:

BYU in four home games: 82.2 PPG, 51.0% FG, 37.5% 3PFG

BYU in four away/neutral games: 71.3 PPG, 39.5% FG, 27.5% 3PFG

This week presents a good opportunity distill the above numbers into a useful representation of this team's ability, as on Wednesday, the 4-1 Utah State Aggies visit Provo. Stew Morrill's team is the best unit BYU will have faced at home this season, and the Cougars will need to play and shoot well to defeat an Aggie team that last won in Provo back in 2005--the season before Rose took over as head coach.

On Saturday, Utah visits the Marriott Center, and while the Runnin' Utes don't possess an imposing profile, they are much more cohesive and talented than they were last season. BYU can't expect to put in a pedestrian effort and win easily.

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Rose has a notable record of success against his program's two most prominent in-state rivals, compiling a 70% win rate against both programs:

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Time to update BYU's weekly player PAP rankings, and this early in the season, we can see some dramatic swings from one week to the next.

In coming weeks, I will rank only players averaging 10+ minutes per game, but in the early going, I will rank all players:

Takeaways:

Matt Carlino is on the road to recovery. He led both teams in bench scoring at Iowa State, and he made three-pointers in both games last week, after opening 1-for-17 from the arc through six games.

There are still too many guys under 40%, which is essentially the PAP "Mendoza Line."

After showing a nice touch in limited time through six games, Ian Harward had a bad week, and for a player his size at his position, 47.4% is not a good number. He went 2-for-7 from the field last week, including a couple of 15-18 foot shots from the baseline that would not be considered in his wheelhouse.

Raul Delgado saw a nice jump last week, but he had nowhere to go but up. His 31% FG/20% 3PGFG rates are very low for a player known as a shooter.

Cory Calvert has yet to get into any kind of offensive flow.

Ambrosino's numbers look decent enough, but his overall understanding of the offensive and defensive schemes remains a work in progress, and that learning curve is curtailing his playing time.

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Side note: none of the three newcomers to the program (Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert) have attempted a single free throw. Tyler Haws and Brandon Davies have attempted 64.4% of the team's free throws.

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This column began by noting that BYU last opened 5-3 back at the start of the 2006-07 season, and that season actually saw BYU drop to 5-4 before rebounding.

That '06-07 team finished 25-9 and started the current string of 25-win seasons and NCAA Tournament appearances.

So, don't give up on the current Cougars; improvement is possible and has proven to be expected in the Rose era.

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