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SALT LAKE CITY -- Utah's water watchers are warning that this winter is stacking up to be a relatively mild one, which means a meager snowpack. With no big storms on the horizon, the chances of turning that around are slim.
In places on the Wasatch Front, it looks like the vintage "Best Snow on Earth." But elsewhere, snow levels are modest to non-existent, with more than a little brown showing.
The issue: high pressure, with no new storms in the pipeline.
"Now we're seeing about the third week of January, without any significant storm activity, with a snowpack of 60 percent. This could be problematic by the time we get to April," says National Weather Service hydrologist Brian McInerney.
Statewide, snowpack is now about 75 percent. There's more snow in the south, but the numbers in the north are thin.
It's nerve-racking for water managers and ski resorts, which rely on fresh snow to draw customers.
"It's early in the snowpack year, but I would feel better if we had a little bit more snow in them hills," says Salt Lake City Public Utilities Director Jeff Niermeyer.
By springtime, in a normal year, the water in the creeks and streams of Utah should be flowing quite well. But with this year's snowpack, we have just a 1 in 4 chance of getting back to normal.
Fortunately, reservoir storage is solid and is expected to hold up even if this year is weak.
"You just don't want to put these together in consecutive years," McInerny says.
Of growing concern, the longer-range trends: winters starting later and ending sooner, with warmer temperatures and less snow.
"For the last decade or so, we're kind of seeing this push. There's been anomalies: 2005, 2006, we had very good snow years; but for my personal opinion, I think we're seeing the leading edge of climate change," Niermeyer says.
At this point, most would be delighted with normal snowpack in 2010. And things can turn quickly, as they did last spring when Alta got 14 feet of snow in 14 days.
E-mail: jdaley@ksl.com
