Trey Lyles scouting report: two paths for the rookie big man


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SALT LAKE CITY — You voted, and the next Jazz scouting report is on Jazz rookie Trey Lyles. Lyles played out of position at Kentucky, making him hard to evaluate after college. But now that he has a season of NBA basketball under his belt, we've got a much better idea of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.

Offense

Lyles already is one of the most offensively skilled big men in the league. I know, that seems like a crazy thing to say about a rookie who averaged just six points per game last season, but it's true: Lyles' skill set is hard to match.

It starts with his jumpshot. It was one of his biggest question marks out of college, because he took less than a 3-point shot per game and made only four of the 29 shots he did take, shooting 13.8 percent. Lyles told me that Kentucky coach John Calipari essentially instructed him not to shoot threes, and that shows up in the data: Lyles took half of those 29 shots in his first 5 games, then tapered off after that.

But upon going into the NBA, he immediately showed off NBA 3-point range, first from the corners, where he shot 44 percent. Later in the season he showed that he felt comfortable taking the above-the-break 3-point shot too, though wasn't quite as efficient with that one, making 32 percent. That's his most valuable skill right now: the ability to space the floor with his shot.

His ability to drive from the perimeter is pretty special too. Lyles will often take advantage of his opponents' eagerness to close out by pump-faking and driving to the rim. Usually, I hate when players do that (just take the three!), but Lyles has earned trust because of his impressive driving ability. Usually, the man closing out on him is a big, so when he drives, he finds more open space inside than most other players would.

Getting inside, he's got a weirdly effective floater, a shot that looks like it'll be too flat to go in, but generally usually does. And around the rim, he shows off a crafty finishing game, making layups that are generally reserved for guards.

I know, garbage time. But man, Trey Lyles is QUICK for a 6'10'' guy: pic.twitter.com/3jjXKxcOhP — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) March 10, 2016

Speaking of guard skills, Lyles' ability to dribble in the open court and find the open man is pretty great for someone his size. The Jazz just rarely get out in transition as is, but should that change, Lyles might be the main benefactor. In half-court, he's got a fantastic feel for the game (it's the first thing that everyone comments on), but isn't racking up the assist totals just yet.

It's not all perfect. Sometimes, Lyles makes a decision too early, taking a contested long jump shot rather than reading how the defense is playing him. He's not a great leaper, so his finishing generally is pretty finesse-based, not power-based. That lowers his efficiency, meaning he only shot 53 percent from the restricted area last year. And a little bit surprisingly, he shot less than 70 percent from the free-throw line.

Defense

The defensive picture is much different. Lyles, at this point in his career, is pretty defensively non-impactful.

At the beginning of the season, he was an outright liability off the ball. He made the wrong read very frequently, leading to wide-open layups, dunk and threes for the opponents. To his credit, that defensive decision making and positioning wildly improved over the course of the season.

On-the-ball and help defense might be the bigger worry. Too frequently, Lyles just cedes ground to driving opponents, allowing them to get directly to the rim and finish over them as Lyles stays vertical, but mostly ground-bound. It means Lyles only contests 21 percent of shots around the rim while on defense and allows 54 percent shooting at the rim. Randy Foye and Vince Carter had blocks more frequently than Lyles.

See how Lyles just takes an initial step back here when James Harden is driving? That gives Harden the space he needs to simply finish over Lyles.

Trey Lyles occasionally doesn't present defensive difficulties for driving players: pic.twitter.com/cQvvOKBGV1 — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) May 6, 2016

Lyles is never going to be a rim protector in the Rudy Gobert mold, but he does need to increase his toughness there; both to make a better effort to get over to help his teammates near the rim and to actually contest shots once he's there.

On the perimeter, Lyles is better, where he can use his agility and balance to move laterally, to stay in front of guys. His isolation defending numbers from Synergy are pretty good, 82nd percentile. He's not picking up steals, though, and finished with the worst steal percentage on the Jazz.

I was a little bit surprised that Lyles was as good of a rebounder in his rookie season as he turned out to be. He actually picked up a higher percentage of available defensive boards than Derrick Favors did this year. It's not a strength, but it's more than enough to keep him on the floor.

Outlook

The Jazz have Lyles under contract for three more years after this, assuming they pick up his options (which they will). His agent is Rich Paul, who is famously difficult about extensions; you'll remember how late Eric Bledsoe and Tristan Thompson signed their deals in September and October respectively. You'll also remember how the Jazz struggled to get Lyles signed for summer league duty, keeping him out as they negotiated small elements of Lyles' rookie deal.

That means a contract negotiation two (for an extension) or three (for a new deal) summers from now won't be cheap.

There are a couple of paths that Lyles could take. The first is as the sweet-shooting big man with limited defense. Think Ryan Anderson. That's certainly worth a lot of money, but it's hard to start that player because of how easily they can be exploited on the other end. Lyles isn't this bad on defense, but Enes Kanter's a model here: good offensive player who the Jazz might ultimately get rid of when he becomes too expensive.

But if Lyles starts to really care about his defense, he can become something way more valuable: a two-way All-Star. That's the kind of player that will make the max and actually be worth it in terms of the wins they'll provide to their team. The Jazz will happily sign up for that.

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