Utah ended up with a near-normal snowpack. Here's how the rest of the West fared

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's snowpack collection was a mixed bag this season, delivering welcomed moisture across northern Utah but not much south of the region.

Gov. Spencer Cox issued a pair of emergency declarations this week in response to the latter, as the state prepares for potential wildfire and drought impacts once what's left of the snowpack melts this spring.

And Utah's season basically sums up what played out all across the West, as this winter's storm track produced heavy totals in some states but near record-low levels in other states. That matters because most of the region's water supply comes from snowpack.

Best (and worst) of the West

With 28.1 inches of snow-water equivalent, Washington led all the Western states in snowpack this year, per Natural Resources Conservation Service data. But the Evergreen State also has the highest median average among the 11 Western states and Alaska, so it's not much of a surprise. Its total this year fell just shy of average, as its southern and eastern neighbors were big winners in outperforming norms.

Oregon's statewide average of 20.3 inches of snow-water equivalent was 122% of its 30-year normal, while California and Idaho also ended up above normal this year.

All three benefited from the predominant storm track during the snowpack collection season, as La Niña returned this winter. The oceanic pattern typically benefits the Pacific Northwest. In this case, many high-pressure systems set up over the Four Corners region, while storms entered through a space between southern Washington and northern California before moving inland to places like Idaho, KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson explained.

It was huge for Oregon, which entered the water year in October with 60% of the state in drought but is now entirely clear of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Flooding has been the only downside as that snowpack has melted, leading Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek to declare an emergency in parts of the state, The Oregonian reported earlier this month.

Utah's northern half caught the southern edge of the primary storm track.

"That was kind of the problem. The core of the storms were passing to the north for most of the season," Johnson said. "Most of your dynamics, moisture and snowfall accompanied that track. Luckily, northern Utah was on that southern-end fringe, so we were getting clipped."

The region's near-normal year was enough to hoist the statewide total close to its annual average. Montana, Nevada, Washington and Wyoming all ended up with statewide averages near or above 90% as storms clipped them, too. And like Utah, some regions fared better than others, leading to lingering drought in parts of Idaho, Montana, Washington and Wyoming, per the U.S. Drought Monitor.

It was a different story in the Southwest, which missed out on many storms — another typical pattern associated with a La Niña winter. Arizona and New Mexico ended up with peak collections close to their record low.

Bo Svoma, principal climate scientist and meteorologist for the Arizona utility provider SRP, told the Arizona Republic earlier this month that the company hadn't done any snow surveys in areas it typically does.

"You can't get much lower than this," he told the newspaper.

About 15% of the West is now in extreme drought or worse, including over 40% of New Mexico and two-thirds of Arizona. Both states are actively preparing for the same impacts that prompted Cox's orders. The Santa Fe New Mexican, for instance, reported on April 5 that "numerous" fire weather warnings had already been issued amid drought and low snowpack levels.

The Southwest's silver lining?

The West's mixed season is likely bad news for the Colorado River, including Lake Powell. Below-normal snowpack and below-normal snowmelt projections across the basin prompted the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to estimate the reservoir straddling Utah and Arizona may only rise 12 feet in the "most probable" outcome. That means it may end up with a net loss by the end of the year, Johnson said.

However, Johnson points out there's often an encouraging link between low Southwest snowpack and monsoon moisture. Long-range outlooks preliminarily favor it taking place again this summer.

Parts of Arizona and New Mexico have odds slightly favoring above-normal precipitation by June and July, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Predicition Center. Those odds could spread out to most of the Four Corners region by the end of the season.

It wouldn't solve reservoir storage concerns and it could produce flash flooding, but it could also be a silver lining as the region prepares for a potentially active fire season. Monsoon storms can ease drought conditions, depending on how the summer plays out.

"We can't hang our hat on it — it's a pretty far-out projection," Johnson said. "But the silver lining is that there's a correlation with it, and long-range models are catching onto it. ... This is the most ideal outlook we could have for summer."

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