Why isn't Dante Exum playing?


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SALT LAKE CITY — For the first time with a functioning ACL in his knee, Dante Exum didn't play. In Monday's win against the Minnesota Timberwolves, coach Quin Snyder sat Exum for all 48 minutes, giving Shelvin Mack the backup point guard minutes. Why? Let's break down what's happening with the Jazz's young PG.

Why isn't Exum playing?

In short, the biggest reason is because the Jazz have been pretty bad with Exum on the court. With Exum on the court, the Jazz are scoring 95.1 points per 100 possessions. With Exum off the court, the Jazz score 111.5 points per 100 possessions.

Even on the defensive end, the Jazz improve when Exum is benched. The Jazz give up 101.5 points per 100 possessions when Exum's in, and that goes down to 97.4 points per 100 possessions when Exum sits.

That shows up in Utah's win-loss record. When Exum plays 23 minutes or more, the Jazz are 1-7. When he plays less, the Jazz are 9-1.

Isn't his competition for backup point guard, Shelvin Mack, pretty bad?

Well, he isn't great.

Just to start, though, let's look at the same plus-minus stats we looked at with Exum. With Mack on, the Jazz score 102.1 points per 100 possessions, compared to 106.7 points when he's off the court. On defense, the Jazz allow 99.0 points per 100 when he's on, 99.2 when he's off. So, the Jazz are little bit worse when Mack is on, but not a lot. Certainly, not to the big degree of the struggles of the Jazz when Exum's on the court.

Mack turns the ball over a ton: 19.4 percent of his plays compared to just 11.6 for Exum. It is ugly and frustrating, and I wish his turnovers weren't part of my life. But Mack also assists about twice as often as well, 7.3 assists vs. Exum's 3.7 per 100 possessions.

Interestingly, they have nearly equal shooting percentages and rebounding totals. But Mack, despite his smaller frame, picks up more steals by a significant margin.

Look, Mack isn't good overall, certainly. But his box score stats are very similar to Exum's, better in some respects, and the plus-minus numbers speak for themselves.

Well that's not fair to Exum, because he generally isn't playing with the Jazz's best players!

Very true! When Exum's in the game, it's usually meant that the bench is in. It probably means George Hill isn't in the game, and Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood and Rudy Gobert might not be either. It probably also means that some of those players are injured.

Here's the thing: combinations with Exum and the starters still aren't very good, and certainly worse than the combinations with Mack and the starters. Look at these pairings, for example:

  • Exum with Gobert: 200 minutes, -1.0 NetRtg
  • Mack with Gobert: 147 minutes, +17.4 NetRtg
  • Exum with Hayward: 174 minutes, +1.4 NetRtg
  • Mack with Hayward: 155 minutes, +16.7 NetRtg
  • Exum with Hood: 167 minutes, -8.0 NetRtg
  • Mack with Hood: 159 minutes, +11.8 NetRtg
  • Exum with Hill: 51 minutes, -11.8 NetRtg
  • Mack with Hill: 26 minutes, +23.4 NetRtg
  • Exum with Gobert and Hayward: 140 minutes, +7.6 NetRtg
  • Mack with Gobert and Hayward: 87 minutes, +21.2 NetRtg
  • Exum with Hayward and Hood: 104 minutes, -3.9 NetRtg
  • Mack with Hayward and Hood: 61 minutes, +22 NetRtg
  • Exum with Gobert and Hill: 34 minutes, -15.6 NetRtg
  • Mack with Gobert and Hill: 21 minutes, +27.9 NetRtg
  • Exum with Gobert, Hayward, and Hood: 96 minutes, -0.2 NetRtg
  • Mack with Gobert, Hayward, and Hood: 42 minutes, +10.2 NetRtg

In every single split, Mack is better than Exum. In other words, Exum's struggles from a plus-minus point of view aren't because he's playing with worse players.

Has Exum disappointed because he's been played out of position?

This is a great question from one of our commenters down below, jenifer01 (yes, I read the comments). Exum has played at the shooting guard position for somewhere between a third and half of his minutes this season, as the Jazz needed wing help when Hayward was out with his broken finger. Has Exum playing shooting guard hampered him?

One problem with checking these numbers from a plus-minus perspective is that most of those minutes came with Mack and Exum on the floor together, making it difficult to compare how the Jazz do with different lineups. But 82games.com keeps track of individual stats for Exum and his on-court matchup, and they don't support the idea that playing shooting guard hurt Exum's performance much.

Why isn't Dante Exum playing?

Stats, schmats. I watch the games and see Exum's better.

Look, I watch the games too. When I watch, I am immensely frustrated with Mack, and it doesn't seem like Exum's playing that poorly.

But I think some psychological stuff is going on here too. We're predisposed to like young players with potential, to see the good and ignore the bad, or at least, hope that it will improve through experience. Exum's the silver lining after a horrendous, tanking effort of a season three years ago, and if he doesn't turn out well, it's very very sad. Meanwhile, Mack's been in a Jazz uniform for 9 months.

But I wanted to see what I was missing on the first watch, so I've gone back and watched some film to try to figure out what's going on.

Here's one answer: smart teams are ignoring Exum completely. Check out where Kemba Walker is on this play.

A Dante Exum story is about to be published! As is tradition, I'm uploading videos for the story. Here's Kemba sinking way off of Dante: pic.twitter.com/A0XRTwIP9n — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 29, 2016

Exum's spacing in the corner, but Walker is so far in the paint that he sees the opportunity to steal the ball on the other side of the floor, leading to two Hornets points. Despite similar shooting percentages, it seems teams feel more comfortable leaving Exum wide open than Mack.

Here's another similar turnover. Exum's defender is all the way in the paint, preventing Gobert's progress to the rim.

@andyblarsen Here's another example of a deep sink pic.twitter.com/EikXdaDpoD — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 29, 2016

And when he has the ball, there's is too much of this, where Exum drives without any real chance of finishing.

@andyblarsen And here's him flipping up a shot that seems unlikely to go in: pic.twitter.com/bTNwrI9bSn — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 29, 2016

Defensively, there's frustration from the coaching staff about Exum's slipping habits. "I'd like to think Dante can get back to the level where he was at, but his habits aren't there yet," Snyder said.

When asked about his near-DNP Friday, Snyder responded with a defensive focus:

"I think Shelvin, the last time we played, played really good in the second half. It's not so much Dante, as much as Shelvin, and what he was doing. His intensity and on-ball defense. We're going to reward guys who play defense with opportunities to play. Shelvin did that," Snyder said. Mack has picked up five steals in his last two games in 31 combined minutes.

"Some guys are going to play more than others at various times, and that will change over the course of the year." Snyder said they've both played well and not so well over the course of the season.

Watching tape, I think I see what Snyder's talking about. Exum's best defensive skill was wiggling over the top on screens, using his length to stay in front of guys and short-circuiting plays. More recently, I've seen this, where Exum's trailing the play a little, then too easily gives the switch:

And I get that Exum is trying to switch here, but ideally, it's just better if he slides under the screen. pic.twitter.com/96U4cYE7sO — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 29, 2016

Now, cherrypicking these sorts of plays is a little bit unfair to Exum; I could give a lowlight reel of Mack, to be sure. But Exum is making mistakes on both ends of the floor.

Isn't it better for the Jazz long-term to play Dante Exum?

Probably. Exum's the former fifth pick of the draft, a young 21, and has acres of potential with his size and quickness. Mack, at 26, is a finished product.

But with the acquisition of Hill, Joe Johnson, and Boris Diaw, the Jazz signaled their move to a win-now team. It appears that's what's going on now.

I'll also say this: there's no longer time to lose games now to play young guys because of Hayward's impending free agency. If Hayward leaves in the offseason, the whole Jazz project takes several steps back. Winning is basically Hayward's whole raison d'être. He definitely feels more comfortable with Hill around (which is one big reason the Jazz have sought an extension with Hill, according to ESPN reports), but probably feels reasonably comfortable with Mack, his Butler teammate, as backup.

Exum will find his way back into the rotation again, I have no doubt. But in order to do so, he needs to show his trademark defensive toughness in practice. Improving his shooting stroke would be a real bonus too.

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