What are realistic expectations for BYU football in 2016?

What are realistic expectations for BYU football in 2016?

(Jeffrey D. Allred/Deseret News)


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PROVO — College football fans have to suffer through a long off-season. In fact, the college football off-season is the longest off-season any group of fans has to endure until their favorite squad plays again.

One way I’ve always been able to bear the off-season is breaking up the long eight months without football into countdowns to events that give me a football fix. National signing day (check), spring football (check), pre-season magazines, time to bust out the pen and check off another box (check).

One of the magazines I picked up was the "Athlon Sports" preview that featured BYU’s Tanner Mangum and Utah’s Marcus Williams on the cover of the regional Pac-12 magazine.

Once I was able to get past the cover of the magazine and the shocking realization that there might be a self-serving agenda for the rivalry outside of Utah borders, the prediction Athlon had for BYU in 2016 raised my eyebrows just a tad. Athlon has BYU finishing 2016 with a 6-6 record.

Now once I read that prediction and sized up BYU’s schedule again, it’s possible BYU could go 6-6. The 2016 schedule is unlike BYU has ever played before. It’s the closest schedule that an independent BYU could possibly piece together that could maybe compare with a Power Five team’s schedule.

BYU has a lot of talent at the top half of their roster in 2016, and that makes the six-win prediction a bit eyebrow-raising. BYU has a pair of stars at the most important position in quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum. Running back Jamaal Williams looks better than ever, and BYU’s defense is expected to be even more physical than what they’ve been known for in recent seasons.

The question then becomes, what are reasonable expectations for BYU in 2016 in Kalani Sitake’s first season? Despite all those positives I just listed with the roster, that schedule truly is a bear. Would BYU fans be able to accept a 6-6 season and view that as progress and a foundation for Sitake’s program in the future if the schedule plays out to be as difficult as all the prognosticators are saying it will be?

Former BYU star Jake Kuresa was recently on "Gunther and Ben in the Afternoon" (weekdays, 3-7 p.m. on 1320 KFAN) and he had the chance to size up BYU’s schedule and expectations this fall.

“I’m not going to set coach Sitake up for failure,” said Kuresa. “I look at this season, and if he’s (Sitake) able to win six or seven games, then I look at that as a step in the right direction.”

ESPN’s Football Power Index has BYU as an underdog in seven of the Cougars 12 games in 2016. Maybe the six-win prediction by Athlon isn’t so far-fetched after all?

“When you look at that schedule and you’re only favored to win two games until the last four; you’ve got to realize that BYU is known for winning the games they are supposed to win, and losing the games they are supposed to lose,” said Kuresa.

The string of empty eight-win campaigns under Bronco Mendenhall ultimately led Mendenhall to feelings that he had done all he could in Provo. How would the response from BYU fans sound if the win total is below that eight-win threshold?

I tend to side with Kuresa on this one. If BYU wins six or seven games, that’s a good season with this schedule. Think back to BYU’s first two years in independence where they were piling up wins beating up on teams from the now-defunct WAC. Did those eight- and 10-win years feel special? That’s why again if BYU comes away .500 or with a winning record, it’s a success. Sitake will have a clear picture of how his program stacks up with some of the nation’s best programs and it’ll give him a great sample size of how to move forward building his team as he looks to bring the level of success he witnessed as a fan and as a player with former BYU head coach LaVell Edwards roaming the sidelines in Provo.

If BYU can pick up the new schemes that are being implemented on both sides of the ball, and have success with these new looks early in the season, BYU has the ability to surprise some folks. But based on what we know right now, six or seven wins would be the realistic and safe bet for BYU in 2016.

That’s why they play the games right? Once those games finally kickoff, I can safely assume that we will all be thrilled to check that box off when the time comes.


![Mitch Harper](http://img.ksl.com/slc/2590/259069/25906967\.jpg?filter=ksl/65x65)
About the Author: Mitch Harper \------------------------------

Mitch Harper is the publisher of CougarNation.com on the Rivals network, BYU insider for 1320 KFAN and co-host of the Cougar Center Podcast on 1320kfan.com and iTunes. Follow him on Twitter @Mitch_Harper.

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