Making playoffs rests on Jazz vs. Mavericks


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SALT LAKE CITY — With the Jazz's playoff chances resting hugely on the outcome, the Utah Jazz take on the Dallas Mavericks tonight at Vivint Arena. Let's preview the Jazz's final home game of the 2015-16 regular season.

Game importance

This is the most important Jazz game in at least four years, since the team last made the playoffs. Why? Well, if the Jazz win tonight, they'll almost certainly make the playoffs. The only way for Utah to not make the playoffs if they win tonight is:

  • Jazz lose to the Lakers Wednesday
  • Houston beats Minnesota away tonight
  • Houston beats Sacramento Wednesday
  • Dallas beats San Antonio Wednesday
To put it simply, the odds of all of those things happening independently is low. If they win, the Jazz have about a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs.

But if the Jazz lose tonight, they'll probably miss the playoffs. At that point, they'd need help from the Houston Rockets, losing to the 28-win Timberwolves or 32-win Kings while still beating the Lakers in Kobe Bryant's final game Wednesday.

It's actually a little bit nerve-wracking, how critical this Jazz game is. One note: Houston's game against Minnesota tips off at 6 p.m. MDT. If the Jazz win and the Rockets lose, the Jazz could clinch the playoffs tonight.

Las Vegas sportsbooks have the Jazz as 6.5 point favorites over the Mavericks tonight.

Coaches

One scary point for the Jazz: Dallas' Rick Carlisle is maybe the league's best coach at taking away what a team does well. Maybe most on display in the 2011 NBA playoffs, when the Mavericks swept through the Blazers, Lakers and Thunder before upsetting the Heat in the Finals, Carlisle uses matchups and unusual schemes to force a team out of its comfort zone. It will be interesting to see how he chooses to attack Gobert, the Jazz's most obvious mix of incredible strengths and real weaknesses.

Jazz coach Quin Snyder, for the most part, prefers his team to stay within the system it's played with all year. That system is designed to attack weak spots and flow away from difficult defenders, though, so it may naturally take advantage of Dallas' defensive weaknesses. Read: whoever Dirk Nowitzki is guarding.

0 days rest for Dallas and Utah

Both teams played yesterday, the Jazz in Denver and the Mavericks in Los Angeles. Both the Jazz and Mavericks have been pretty excellent in back-to-backs this season, going 10-7 and 9-7, respectively.

I asked Gordon Hayward if playing on the second night of a back-to-back affected how much game planning the Jazz were able to do.

"This is our third time playing this team, plus we've played them a bunch in the past too," Hayward said. "Because of that, and because of the staff we have, we'll have as much game plan as we need."

Health of Derrick Favors

Derrick Favors is officially questionable for tonight's game due to right knee soreness, the same ailment that made him a late scratch for yesterday's game against Denver. Media requested Favors at this morning's shootaround, but he was not made available.

Favors seemed creaky to Rudy Gobert last night. After the game, he told ROOT Sports:

Gobert to Favors pregame: If you're not feeling great, just don't play. We need you 100% tomorrow, don't be 50% tonight and 50% tomorrow. — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) April 10, 2016

Given that, and the importance of this game, I'd expect Favors to play tonight, even just to try it out. But Trey Lyles may make sense to play major minutes tonight anyway: The Jazz went on a big run in the Jazz's [last game against Dallas](http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400828674) with Lyles on the floor, and Lyles finished as a +14. If Favors can't move as well as he's used to, maybe Lyles will get the finishing minutes, even if Favors starts. We'll see.

Rotating Dallas PGs

Both Deron Williams and J.J. Barea are questionable for tonight's game, leaving the possibility that Raymond Felton and Devin Harris will be Dallas' main point guards. All four Dallas PGs present something different for the Jazz's attack:

  • Williams' size means he's been a threat to Jazz PGs down low. Shelvin Mack's acquisition may help that, though.
  • Barea has hurt the Jazz repeatedly over the course of his career, and was named the Western Conference Player of the Week last week after averaging 24 points per game.
  • Felton scored 21 points against the Clippers last night, and usually makes smart plays.
  • Harris has played at least 20 minutes per game in 13 of Dallas' last 14 games. He's been taking most of his shots from outside the 3-point line.
Carlisle has been playing multiple point guards at once, and to some success. We'll see if he has all four available tonight, or just two or three.

Slow pace of play comfortable for both teams

Dallas has found success recently, winning seven of its last eight games, by playing at a slower pace than usual. In those last eight games, the Mavericks have played at the third slowest pace in the league, trailing only the Jazz and the Spurs.

That's really helped their defense. By slowing down the pace of the game, they've been able to get their defense set on one end. Meanwhile, Barea's emergence has meant they've still been able to score efficiently in half-court sets.

The Jazz, though, live and breathe slow play. They've had the slowest pace in the league for the last two seasons, and embrace that as their identity. The Mavericks have hurt fast-paced teams with this strategy, but I don't think they'll hurt Utah.

Crowd can have a big impact

Being at home is a big advantage for the Jazz tonight, who have been 24-16 at home this year. That's in large part due to the impact of Jazz fans and the crowd at Vivint Arena.

"The crowd is huge," Hayward said. "We always seem to play better at home. When you hit a couple of shots, it's a huge momentum swing. Coming off the back-to-back, it'll be big for us."

Snyder agreed.

"It's a big deal. Especially with our guys, they never take it for granted. Sometimes I'm focused in the game, but then I hear our guys talking about it after the game and they always hear it."

If there's ever a game for Jazz fans to go really crazy in their support, it's this one against the Mavericks.

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