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SALT LAKE CITY — Of all the things in the world, NBA free agency is probably the closest thing to nailing Jell-O to the wall.
One team’s roster moves can affect every single franchise, yet no team has an absolute beat on what will happen. Look at the influence LeBron James has had on the league by deciding to become a free agent, twice.
In 2010, scores of teams created vast amounts of cap space to court James, and Miami, Cleveland, New York, and Chicago set themselves up as the leaders in the fight. Once James decided on Miami, the dominoes fell throughout the league, as New York overspent on Amar’e Stoudemire, Chicago overspent on Carlos Boozer, and Cleveland was left to try and fill a void that is still cavernous (more on this in a moment).
2014 is proving to be of no difference, as James’ decision on where to go is being appraised by the second. Several teams have the cap space to offer him maximum money, with several more teams waiting to see what happens in the fallout of his eventual decision. With so many teams needing to spend the money they have available, there will be a flux of minidecisions that will affect several teams.
#UJ
Without a doubt, the Utah Jazz will be affected by the decision James makes, and here’s how: If James stays with Miami, teams will feel compelled to bring in a player who has name recognition, and will undoubtedly overpay a player to bring positive attention to their franchise. Utah-restricted free agent Gordon Hayward is a player that teams like enough, and fans know enough, to receive several high-level offers, likely from teams that have supporters of his in positions of power, like Phoenix (coach Jeff Hornacek is a former Jazz assistant). ESPN has also reported that Cleveland is prepared to offer Hayward a maximum salary deal, in the attempt to dissuade Utah from re-signing him.
Now, the Jazz have already made it public knowledge that they want Hayward to return to Utah, and general manager Dennis Lindsey went as far as to say that he expects Hayward to remain with the franchise.
But, what will the 2014/2015 Utah Jazz look like if Gordon Hayward stays? What will the team look like if he leaves? The possibilities on each side are filled with both potential and pitfalls, and the Hayward decision is a decision point that will strongly influence the path the franchise takes over the next three seasons.
If Hayward stays
Utah will have a player that is the undoubted team leader. However, in a team-leader capacity last season, Hayward’s performance was mixed at best, as he averaged just 16.2 points a game in spite of playing seven minutes more a game. While he turned in marquee performances against Oklahoma City and Miami, he also struggled in games against teams like New York and Los Angeles.
With Hayward, the Utah front office knows what they are getting: a talented scorer who can guard a variety of positions on the court. Hayward is talented, yes; elite, no. Obviously, his tenure with the Jazz has been filled with a variety of changes, both on and off the court. However, Hayward’s development as a consistent wing scorer hasn’t happened yet, and Utah needs the development to happen, pronto.
With new coach Quin Snyder, who is considered to be a development guru, it is likely he’ll have new life breathed into his personal growth. If Snyder works with Hayward, there is a good chance that he will develop into a more consistent player.
While Hayward could have additional upside by staying in Utah, his staying will also create interesting questions about the roster. With Hayward playing for the Jazz, it is likely that draftee Dante Exum will be playing behind Alec Burks at the shooting-guard position, with Hayward maintaining his spot at small forward. Hayward could put second-year point guard Trey Burke’s status in question, though, as Snyder may be tempted to try Exum at the point as part of a bigger lineup.
Also, if Hayward stays in Utah, draftee Rodney Hood will have to fight for more playing time. Certainly, there will be a logjam of players who can play three positions, with Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and Rudy Gobert shuffling through the post.
If Hayward stays, look for the Jazz to be less urgent in trying to resign Marvin Williams, who played a Dirk Nowitzki-style role with Utah last season as a big man that can make 3-point shots. A variety of teams are interested in Williams, as reported by several local sources, and his playing time/position may be difficult to determine in Utah.
If Hayward leaves
Utah is officially resetting the table, going with young talent that can be developed completely in Snyder’s image. Financially, the Jazz will have at least $10 million extra per season in cap space over the next four years that can be used in a variety of other ways.
First off, expect Utah to re-sign Williams if Hayward goes in another direction, as his player profile will have the necessary time and space to play effectively for Utah. Also, look for the Jazz to play Burke at the point; Exum at shooting guard; Williams at small forward/power forward; Kanter at power forward; and Favors at center. If Hayward leaves, the post has the most questions, as at least one player will be forced to play out of position.
Hayward’s leaving opens up the doors for the Jazz in a variety of ways, especially the development of young talent in the organization. However, Utah will lose a player who has shown he has the ability to guard elite wing scorers in the league, and who can put up a marquee scoring performance at the drop of a hat. What Hayward provides NBA teams is a solid on-and-off-the-court presence.
In the end, though, money will talk to players and player upside will talk to management. The trick will be figuring out how to manage the needs of both parties to the benefit of both parties.
