Examining No. 23 BYU basketball's NCAA Tournament resume with 3 games to go


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PROVO — BYU basketball has its best team since the Jimmer Fredette-led squad of 2010-11.

At least, that’s what AP college basketball voters decided Monday morning when they revealed the newest rankings that had the Cougars ranked No. 23 in the country.

It’s BYU’s highest ranking since the final week of the 2011 season, when the Cougars finished 32-5 with a berth in the Sweet 16.

That makes BYU’s selection for the 2020 NCAA tournament in less than four weeks is all but guaranteed … right?

“We’re just trying to win a game. That’s really true,” BYU head coach Mark Pope said last week before sweeping a pivotal road swing at Loyola Marymount and San Diego.

“I am really proud of where we are right now," Pope said. "We’ve put ourselves in a position where we have a chance. We could fold up the tents and collapse, and we won’t get where we want to go. But right now, we’re in a position where we have a real chance to perform, fight and play some postseason basketball. I’m really proud of that.”

Yet the Cougars (21-7, 10-3 WCC) are far from a “lock” for the tournament, according to most bracketologists who release their rankings publicly. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects BYU as No. 6 seed and the home team in a matchup against Cincinnati in St. Louis, a site that feeds into the Midwest regional in Minneapolis.

That, perhaps, is where BYU’s postseason attention turns in this week, the final home games of the regular season against Santa Clara and No. 2 Gonzaga. As the flagship university of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the Cougars don’t play on Sunday, leaving them eligible for only two of four regionals in the 68-team tournament.

Here’s how BYU stacks up in several metrics the committee uses to narrow down the final field of 68.

NET rankings

The AP rankings are cool, but the NCAA puts most of its emphasis on the NET, a compilation of computer and human polls that is based heavily on a variety of metrics.

The Cougars currently rank 23rd out of 353 teams in Division I, with a KenPom rating of 19th.

These rankings change regularly — sometimes daily, depending on games played — as new data is introduced.

Strength of record

BYU’s strength of schedule ranks 46th nationally, though it represents a significant dip since the start of West Coast Conference play. The record is bolstered by the Cougars’ strong nonconference play, which ranks ninth nationally with a 10-4 record against Division I opponents.

Among the Cougars’ losses are a 76-71 home loss to San Diego State, the only undefeated Division I team in the country, as well as road losses to Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Kansas on a neutral court.

The Cougars are 5-5 in true road games and can finish the regular season above .500 with a win at Pepperdine next Saturday, Feb. 29.

Quadrant 1

The committee’s Quadrant 1 includes games against opponents ranked in the top 30 of the NET on a home court, top 50 on a neutral court, and top 75 on the road. As you can imagine, these numbers can change as new rankings are released and new data is available.

The Cougars are currently 2-4 in Quad 1 opportunities, with a neutral-court win over No. 41 Utah State and a road win at No. 27 Houston.

Quad 2

Quad 2 are games against teams ranked Nos. 31-75 at home, 51-100 on a neutral floor, and 76-135 on the road. BYU’s overall record of 3-3 in Quad 2 opportunities is bolstered by an 81-79 home win over No. 34 Saint Mary’s, a 90-77 win over No. 76 Virginia Tech in Maui, and a 74-60 win at No. 115 Pacific.

Quads 3 and 4

The Cougars are 15-0 in Quad 3 and 4 opportunities, with the most notable Quad 3 wins coming against No. 89 Nevada, No. 98 San Francisco, No. 101 UCLA and No. 130 UNLV.

BYU’s top Quad 4 victory is a 68-63 win over No. 178 Southern Utah.

Cougars at No. 23

Injuries and suspensions

Multiple committee members have confirmed that teams are also judged based on how they are playing in the final weeks of the season compared to the start, and injuries and suspensions do play a role in overall selection.

That means the Cougars’ first nine games of the 2019-20 season, when star forward Yoeli Childs was held off the court by an NCAA suspension, will be judged differently than the rest of the season.

BYU opened 6-3 in those games, with losses to San Diego State, at Boise State in overtime, and to Kansas in the Maui Invitational.

Additionally, injuries to Childs will likely factor into how the Cougars’ 87-84 overtime loss at Saint Mary’s and a 92-69 loss at Gonzaga are seen.

The committee will also likely consider injuries to Kolby Lee, Trevin Knell and most recently to Dalton Nixon, as well.

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