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Bird flu is a threat globally. If it becomes a worldwide pandemic, people will need to respond at every level, including locally.
A considerable amount of local preparation is under way. Public Health -- Seattle & King County, which recently won an award for other emergency planning, is working with health care providers on coping with a crisis.
According to a report from Trust for America's Health, a severe pandemic might kill 21,820 Washingtonians and cause nearly 118,000 extra hospitalizations. Such an outbreak would overwhelm hospitals' normal bed capacity, equipment such as ventilators and the health care work force. Health care workers would presumably have a high priority for receiving some of the limited supplies of an anti-viral drug, Tamiflu.
The development of an experimental avian flu vaccine, reported Sunday by The New York Times, will offer new options for protecting vital health care workers and at least some other people. And it might help slow or halt an outbreak, especially if combined with other strategies.
Public Health spokesman James Apa says the effects could be eased by a strong response during the first of what might be roughly six-week waves of flu. If authorities can hold down the contagion during any one period, the strain on health care services, prescription drug supplies and equipment will be eased.
The hardest local decisions could be about shutdowns of schools, public transit and gathering places. A bit of local history is relevant: In 1918, Seattle saw much lower flu mortality rates than many cities after unpopular decisions by Mayor Ole Hanson and others to close schools, require masks in public and ban routine religious services.
Public Health has begun an outreach program to business, to encourage emergency planning. Among the keys would be telecommuting, minimizing face-to-face contacts of workers and deciding what services and businesses are essential.
Especially if vaccine supplies are limited early in an outbreak, it would be critical for individuals to reduce exposure risks through frequent hand washing, covering coughs and possibly using facial masks in some circumstances. As authorities realize, flu preparation offers benefits in readiness for any threat. Responses similar to those envisioned for a pandemic got the world through the SARS crisis well despite initial mistakes.
Michael Loehr, a section manager for Public Health -- Seattle & King County, says: "Preparedness is a continuous process. It is not a destination." That is why thinking ahead seriously now, even at an individual level, can be a matter of saving lives later, in a pandemic or other health emergency.
Second of two editorials.
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