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SALT LAKE CITY — Any anticipation of a stress-free summer for Mark Harlan blew up with the surprising announcement that sent shock waves through the world of college athletics.
"It's been eventful," the Utah athletic director said. "It was going great until the end of (June), which I think marked the end of summer. I think that's the best way to say it."
Hard to enjoy summer when it only lasts one week, but that was the case once Harlan's professional world turned upside down with the June 30 news of Pac-12 staples USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten in two years. Suddenly, chaos erupted for the remaining 10 schools.
Without the two Los Angeles schools, the conference was in peril. Two months later, nothing is definite beyond the football season kicking off this weekend.
Before the sun sets on the West's premiere conference, Harlan advises not to get caught up in the persistent rumors swirling around college athletics. The Pac-12 is not doomed yet, but hold on tight.
In a 20-minute interview on The Zone radio station, Harlan went through the last two months and where the conference currently stands. For now, anyway, the plan is to negotiate a new round of television rights contracts that begin in 2024.
The new deal, which is expected to be finalized in the coming months, almost assuredly will be in the range of 5-7 years. Locking up long-term contracts, as the Pac-12 did after under former commissioner Larry Scott, are outdated.
"We've got a Utah plan," he said. "We've got different paths to take depending on what happens. But right now, the path, which just has cleared up for us, is to stick with the 10 schools and try to cut a great TV deal. It's not going to be as great, obviously with the L.A. schools going, but I think it's going to be a lot better than most people believe it will be."
By comparison, the Big Ten recently struck a deal with several networks that will total between $7 billion to $8 billion spread over seven years. Estimates indicate losing the Los Angeles schools will cost each Pac-12 about $13 million annually in television payouts.
The anticipated huge financial discrepancy between the Big Ten and Pac-12 is the primary reason any of the remaining 10 schools likely would jump at the opportunity to accompany USC and UCLA. Harlan would not comment on any discussions Utah officials have had about joining other conferences, but four schools (Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford) have been repeatedly linked to the Big Ten over the last month.
At the same time, the Big Ten has not extended any more invitations, likely meaning the existing Pac-12 schools are in line to sign new TV contracts. It's not like they have another landing place right now.
"You've got to have an invitation or believe it's assured that you're coming," Harlan said. "If not, then what are you going to do — not take any TV money?"
As it stands, the timing of the impending contracts makes sense for Utah being all in on the Pac-12. Indicative of changing landscape, Harlan thought on Tuesday the Big 12 is another year away from negotiating new deals, but on Wednesday the conference announced it will begin discussions with Fox and ESPN about the next television contract.
"We're going to know what our number is for the conference," Harlan said. "We're going to be able to lock in, in some form or fashion, get our grant of rights conversation and kind of know where we're at rather than maybe another conference like the Big 12 that has to wait until '24 to go through that process."
Oops.
Still, it's hard to believe Utah could get stranded on the outside without access to the football playoff that is expected to expand to at least 12 teams. Knowing football is king, Utah has become a national power in the sport.
Coming off their first Pac-12 championship and Rose Bowl appearance, the Utes begin the season ranked No. 7. They also are favored to repeat as conference champions.
"I can assure you because of what we've done for many, many years here, a decade-plus, in this conference, football and otherwise, we're very attractive," Harlan said. "We'll have options no matter what happens. Our best option is to stay with these 10 schools, perhaps add a few, which of course our chancellors and presidents have formally asked the athletic directors and others to explore. We'll see and play that out. I think that has a real chance of success."
