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What's the timeline looking like for the Pac-12 to make a decision on expansion? Do you think it'll be wrapped up by the time the conference makes its media rights deal public next year (or later)? — @cgboan
Most likely, a decision on expansion and the act of signing a new media rights agreement will unfold concurrently.
In our estimation, the course of events will follow one of two paths:
— The Pac-12 signs an exclusive deal with ESPN, as a 10-school conference, in the next two or three weeks.
— The Pac-12 negotiates with multiple bidders on the open market and takes a hard look at expansion in a process that consumes six-to-eight weeks, if not longer.
The Big Ten just announced a new media rights agreement after six months (approximately) of negotiations. These things take time, unless you have a killer deal on the table. And there is no reason to expect ESPN to make a killer offer initially, if at all.
So let's assume the Pac-12 hits the open market. The negotiations will undoubtedly include expansion scenarios and revenue models for various outcomes and schools.
The need for inventory to fill enough time slots to satisfy potential partners could play a role. More teams equates to more games and more programming hours.
The presidents and chancellors will (presumably) select the option that provides the best combination of revenue for all, flexibility for schools hoping to join the Big Ten, and stability for the rest of the membership.
That's a steep challenge and the reason we have installed Pac-12 survival as a mere 4.5-point favorite over Pac-12 extinction: It's the most likely outcome but hardly a guarantee based on current dynamics.
If the conference opts to expand, that process would delay the signing of a media rights agreement because of various legal and conference governance issues.
Again, look to the Big Ten for timeline insight: USC and UCLA joined on June 30, but the deal wasn't finalized for seven more weeks.
If the Pac-12 decides to expand, it's not unreasonable to think the process (adding members and signing a media contract) could span the entire football season.
Will Fox also get, or want, a share of the rights to broadcast Pac-12 football? — @matt_schnuck
That's a critical issue, and one with considerable uncertainty.
Our sources in the media space are skeptical that Fox will bid on Pac-12 content, and the absence of a Fox digital arm certainly doesn't help the Pac-12's cause.
However, it's important to remember the network currently owns the broadcast rights to 22 football games each season, many of them on FS1.
That's about 80 hours of programming, and it cannot all be filled with Big Ten and Big 12 games — unless, of course, Fox plans to abandon the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window.
Typically, networks are loath to relinquish sports content they already own, but the dynamics in the college football programming world have changed significantly in the past few months.
The Big Ten is "not done yet" with expansion. Does that seem like more of a warning to the Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame or someone else entirely? — @JesseKolodkin
It's not a warning to Notre Dame, which is calling its own shots. If anything, it could signal the Big Ten is holding out hope of grabbing the Irish in a few years.
And it's not a warning to the Big 12, which has no properties of use to the Big Ten.
But the Pac-12 and ACC are vulnerable to future poaching, the former more than the latter: With a grant-of-rights agreement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is better defended against raids by the Big Ten and SEC; the Pac-12's grant of rights deal expires in two years.
(That said, we believe North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech could be on the Big Ten's radar in the future based on a combination of academic clout, media value, and recruiting pipelines.)
The current situation is unprecedented.
Every utterance from the Big Ten about further expansion, whether it's a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an anonymous source, is taken as an immediate threat to the Pac-12's survival.
We see room for nuance:
Sure, those comments could be taken to mean invitations for Washington, Oregon, Stanford and possibly Cal are mere weeks or months away.
But the Big Ten might not expand again for many years, and it might only expand again if Notre Dame is involved.
All we know is that presumptions are risky when it comes to realignment.
Is there any chance that Utah gets an invite to the Big Ten along with Oregon and Washington? Or is it Cal/Stanford over Utah just because of market size and politics? Is it not enough to be great at football? — @UtefanNick
We'll answer the last question, about the importance of being great at football, with eight words: Rutgers is a member of the Big Ten.
Expansion decisions are made on three valuation levels: institutional (academic) value, competitive value, and media value. The revenue piece gets the most attention, for good reason, but it's not the only driver.
We don't envision a path for Utah into the Big Ten unless the Power Five structure completely implodes and the league settles on an eight-team western division with the four California schools, Oregon, Washington, the Utes and one other program.
That's extremely unlikely based on the current environment. But again, never say never with realignment.
What are the odds of a Pac-12 collapse if the Big Ten poaches Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon in 2024? — @rwgriswold4
100%.
In that scenario, a total of six schools would be headed to the Big Ten, and the Four Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would undoubtedly leave for the Big 12.
Sure, the conference could reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West schools, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only.
What if UCLA had tried to bring Cal into the negotiations with Fox, the Big Ten and USC at the outset? If both UC schools would have taken a serious discount, could a deal have been swung that included Cal in the move? — @paul_raich
First, UCLA wasn't taking a discounted share — the entire reason for the move was to collect enough revenue to pay off the athletic department's debt and support the sports programs moving forward.
I have not confirmed that UCLA inquired about membership for Cal, but that's nonetheless a distinct possibility. And if the Bruins made the attempt, Fox would have whispered to the Big Ten that the numbers didn't work.
In fact, the numbers don't work for any single Bay Area or Pacific Northwest school — none of them carry enough media value to increase the share size for current Big Ten members.
They only work as a group, if the intent is to create a West Coast division.
Can UC regents block a legally binding agreement made by a chancellor to whom they granted such authority without significant negative consequences? — @tkz33272766
It all depends on what documents the Bruins have signed with the Big Ten, and we aren't currently privy to that information.
If the regents' math is correct about USC being 30% of the conference value, forcing UCLA to stay will cost the UC system at best $35 million a year, and at worst $65 million per year, correct? — @JohnmyMacJr
I do not believe that math will ultimately prove correct.
The Los Angeles market might be worth 30%, but the Trojans themselves are not.
We dove into the valuations Saturday morning.
What if the Pac-12 added Gonzaga? Could they make the revenue work with a school that doesn't play football? It would be a powerhouse basketball league and maybe ensure that Oregon and Washington stay. — @Josh_Suchon
My sense is that basketball-only expansion is not currently on the table.
It simply doesn't drive revenue: Approximately 85 cents for every media dollar spent on college sports is earmarked for football.
If Gonzaga is headed anywhere, it's the Big East.
And if Oregon and Washington get the call from the Big Ten, they're leaving regardless.
How many Pac-12 teams will be in the top 25 at the end of the football season? @022SportsGuy
Four: Utah, Oregon, USC and UCLA.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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