NCAA projections: Poor nonconference showing might have doomed the Pac-12


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Frequent readers of this space might have noticed we make a big deal out of the Pac-12's annual performance in nonconference games, whether it's good, bad or ghastly.

Our reason: It is a big deal.

There's a direct correlation between nonconference results and Selection Sunday success.

But don't trust us on that. Trust the conference.

The Pac-12's weekly basketball release includes its overall winning percentage in nonconference games for every season back to 1985, when the NCAA field expanded to 64 teams, along with the number of tournament bids the Pac-12 received that year.

In the decade since expansion to 12 schools, the connection between nonconference performance and NCAA berths is clear:

When the winning percentage is below 70%, the bid total is below four.

Here you go (seasons with sub-70 winning percentage in italics):

2012: 61.1%/two bids
2013: 74.8%/five bids
2014: 78.3%/six bids
2015: 72.5%/four bids
2016: 78%/seven bids
2017: 72.2%/four bids
2018: 69.8%/three bids
2019: 61.3%/three bids
2020: 73.9%/NCAAs canceled
2021: 74%/five bids

The reason for the connection is clear: In the era of the RPI and now the NET rankings, nonconference success establishes the analytic guardrails for each team. Those guardrails remain in place through the league season, when all results are of the eat-your-own variety.

Essentially, November and December are for building the apartment that will house your teams until Selection Sunday. Thrive early, and your structure is high class. Struggle early, and it's low rent.

Where do things stand for the Pac-12 this winter? Not good. Not good at all.

The Pac-12's nonconference win rate is 66.7%, suggesting fewer than four bids are forthcoming.

To the Hotline's latest NCAA projections …

— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.

(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)

Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Listed in order of NET ranking (through Tuesday) …

Arizona

NET Ranking: No. 2

Record vs. Quad I and II: 10-2

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-0

NCAA projection: No. 1 seed

Comment: Based on the current NET rankings, Arizona has just one Quadrant I game remaining (at USC), in addition to those it might experience in the conference tournament. Any stretch-run strengthening of its resume is most likely to come from the performance of past conquests (Illinois, Michigan and Wyoming).

UCLA

NET Ranking: No. 14

Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-5

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0

NCAA projection: No. 5 seed

Comment: Can't believe I'm typing this, but here goes: UCLA's results this weekend against the Washington schools could prove consequential in determining Pac-12 tournament seeds in case of a tie for fourth place.

USC

NET Ranking: No. 25

Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-3

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 14-1

NCAA projection: No. 7 seed

Comment: No team has a tougher finish than USC, which plays Oregon (road), Arizona (home) and UCLA (road) in succession over the final eight days.

Washington State

NET Ranking: No. 47

Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-6

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: The Cougars aren't the only top-50 team lacking a Quadrant I victory, but they aren't making the at-large field without one. There are two chances this weekend in L.A., and that's it (until Las Vegas).

Oregon

NET Ranking: No. 58

Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-5

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-3

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: Bracket Matrix, which aggregates the NCAA projections from 119 mock brackets, lists Oregon as a No. 12 seed (on average). The Ducks appear on half (59) of the brackets in the model.

Colorado

NET Ranking: No. 89

Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-8

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 13-1

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: We'll break from the analytics to remind Hotline readers that Jabari Walker is damn good.

Stanford

NET Ranking: No. 93

Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-10

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: Unless the Cardinal is the last team standing in Las Vegas, it will miss the NCAAs for the 13th time in the past 14 years — this, after a run of making the NCAAs in 12 of 13 years.

Washington

NET Ranking: No. 128

Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-6

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: The Huskies are still looking for their first Quadrant I win of the season. So are 29 teams positioned above them in the NET.

Utah

NET Ranking: No. 130

Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-13

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-3

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: The Utes aren't scheduled to face either of the Pac-12's bubble teams (Oregon and WSU) down the stretch but have one huge chance to create resume havoc: when Arizona visits next week.

Arizona State

NET Ranking: No. 134

Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-12

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 4-3

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: With seven games packed into the final 17 days, ASU will either have substantial momentum when it departs for Las Vegas or not enough gas in the tank to even reach Kingman.

Cal

NET Ranking: No. 136

Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-13

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: Just as Stanford wants to face USC in the Pac-12 tournament, Cal would love to play Stanford in the opening round after eliminating the Cardinal in back-to-back seasons. And based on the current standings, it just might happen.

Oregon State

NET Ranking: No. 255

Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-11

Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-9

NCAA projection: no bid

Comment: Not sure which is worse for the Beavers — being 197 spots below Oregon in the NET … or being 53 below Portland.


Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.


Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.

Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

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Jon Wilner, Bay Area News GroupJon Wilner
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.

Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.

Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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