Pac-12 power ratings: Washington State moves onto the NCAA Tournament bubble


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The most significant men's basketball matchup in the Pac-12 this week isn't what it seems. It's not the rivalry game in Los Angeles, where No. 12 UCLA and No. 21 USC collide Saturday night on ESPN.

Rather, it's the Thursday evening affair in the Palouse, where a visit from Arizona constitutes Washington State's biggest regular-season game since the conference expanded more than a decade ago.

And in case you believe the Hotline is engaging in hyperbole, we suggest — no, we urge you to check WSU's annual record going back to the early 2010s.

You'll find a series of seasons in which the Cougars weren't relevant in the conference or nearly good enough to sniff the NCAA Tournament. Many of those years, they were downright awful.

This season, they are both a factor in the Pac-12 race and a contender for the NCAAs.

The Cougars (14-7) have worked their way onto the bubble with five consecutive wins and a solid NET ranking of No. 36. (The NCAA Evaluation Tool plays an integral role in determining the at-large field.)

A victory over Arizona would provide a signature result in their pursuit of the program's first NCAA bid since the 2008 season under coach Tony Bennett.

The Cougars mustered a few solid seasons after their trip to the Sweet 16, then sunk into a prolonged state of irrelevance that culminated with the termination of coach Ernie Kent in the spring of 2020.

His replacement, Kyle Smith, has rebuilt the roster, revamped the style of play and reinvigorated the program.

WSU is the most-prolific 3-point shooting team in the conference, but defense has fueled the ascent. The Cougars are No. 22 nationally in defensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy Ratings. They lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense (62.2 ppg allowed) and 3-point percentage defense.

A soft non-conference schedule made us wary of their NCAA prospects, but this recent winning streak, which includes WSU's first sweep in the Bay Area since 1993, has nudged them onto the bubble.

While the Cougars have deftly avoided bad losses in league play, their resume lacks a first-class win. Alone among the top 40 teams in the NET rankings, they don't own a Quadrant I victory.

Topple the first-place Wildcats, and WSU would have all the rocket fuel needed for the stretch run.

To the power ratings …

(NET rankings through Monday)

1. Arizona (20-2/10-1)

Last week: 2

Results: beat UCLA 76-66 and USC 72-63, won at ASU 91-79

Next up: at Washington State (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 3 (last week: 3)

Comment: Mighty neighborly of the Wildcats to spot ASU that early 13-point lead. But in true rivalry form, it was nothing more than a busload of false hope.

2. UCLA (16-4/8-3)

Last week: 1

Results: lost at Arizona 76-66 and ASU 87-84 (3OT)

Next up: at Stanford (Tuesday)

NET ranking: No. 15 (last week: 10)

Comment: There's no good time for a triple-overtime loss to a sub-.500 opponent. But smack in the middle of four consecutive road games, well, that's an exceedingly bad time.

3. USC (19-4/9-4)

Last week: 3

Results: won at ASU 58-53, lost at Arizona 72-63

Next up: vs. Pacific (Tuesday)

NET ranking: No. 27 (last week: 26)

Comment: The record grows softer by the week. Of the 19 wins, zero have come against teams guaranteed to make the NCAA field through the at-large pool. Another chance arrives Saturday night, dressed in blue and gold.

4. Washington State (14-7/7-3)

Last week: 4

Results: won at Stanford 66-60 and Cal 68-64

Next up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 36 (last week: 38)

Comment: Worth noting: The stretch run we mentioned above is just this side of brutal. The Cougars have USC and UCLA on the road and two dates with Oregon. From that five-game package (including Arizona), they need at least two wins.

5. Oregon (15-7/8-3)

Last week: 7

Results: won at Colorado 66-51 and Utah 80-77

Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 49 (last week: 58)

Comment: The loss to Colorado two weeks ago makes less sense by the hour.

6. Stanford (14-8/7-5)

Last week: 6

Results: beat Cal 57-50, lost to WSU 66-60, beat UW 87-69

Next up: vs. UCLA (Tuesday)

NET ranking: No. 89 (last week: 89)

Comment: The fork is in hand, raised and ready to be inserted into Stanford's at-large hopes. But we're not quite ready for the final thrust.

7. Colorado (14-9/6-7)

Last week: 5

Results: lost to Oregon 66-51, beat OSU 86-63

Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 92 (last week: 92)

Comment: The victory at Oregon two weeks ago makes less sense by the minute.

8. Washington (12-9/7-4)

Last week: 8

Results: won at Cal 84-63, lost at Stanford 87-69

Next up: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 131 (last week: 140)

Comment: One or two more victories and Mike Hopkins will be playing with, err, house money.

9. Arizona State (7-14/3-8)

Last week: 9

Results: lost to USC 58-53, beat UCLA 87-84 (3OT), lost to Arizona 91-79

Next up: at Washington (Thursday)

NET ranking: No. 136 (last week: 152)

Comment: Huge win over the Bruins, tough loss to the Wildcats, and now the longest trip of the season. We'll be watching ASU's energy level on Thursday night.

10. Utah (9-15/2-12)

Last week: 11

Results: beat Oregon State 84-59, lost to Oregon 80-77

Next up: at Colorado (Saturday)

NET ranking: No. 125 (last week: 130)

Comment: For the back pocket: The Hotline projects Utah to beat Arizona later this month in the Huntsman Center.

11. Cal (9-15/2-11)

Last week: 10

Results: lost at Stanford 57-50, lost to UW 84-63 and WSU 68-64

Next up: at Oregon State (Wednesday)

NET ranking: No. 148 (last week: 128)

Comment: Good thing the Bears banked all those early-season wins or there wouldn't be anything for the faithful to get excited about. Oops, check that. We've just been informed there's absolutely nothing for the faithful to get excited about.

12. Oregon State (3-17/1-9)

Last week: 12

Results: lost at Utah 84-59 and Colorado 86-63

Next up: vs. Cal (Wednesday)

NET ranking: No. 243 (last week: 226)

Comment: The Beavers are leaving us absolutely dumbfounded for the second time in 11 months.


Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.


Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.

Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

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Jon Wilner, Bay Area News GroupJon Wilner
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.

Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.

Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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