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Five weeks from Selection Sunday, it's time for the Hotline to play the role of oddsmaker.
We've set the Over/Under total for the number of Pac-12 teams expected to reach the NCAA Tournament at 3.5.
Three teams are locks: Arizona, UCLA and USC. Everyone else is on the bubble, at best.
The conference has two options for gaining a fourth bid: 1) One of the other nine teams wins the Pac-12 tournament to claim the automatic berth; 2) One of the other nine teams does enough over the final five weeks to secure an at-large berth.
Which of the two scenarios is more likely?
We're deeply skeptical that the conference tournament winner will be a team not named Arizona, UCLA or USC, because collecting the trophy likely will require two wins over the Big Three in Las Vegas — in the semifinals and then the finals.
That said, recent losses by Oregon (to Colorado) and Colorado (to the Washington schools) have narrowed the path to the at-large field for prominent bubble teams.
The Ducks remain the contender with the best chance, but they are running out of time to offset any bad losses sustained down the stretch …
Welcome to the Hotline's updated NCAA projections.
— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.
(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed in order of NET ranking (through Tuesday) …
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 3
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-0
NCAA projection: No. 3 seed
Comment: Not many chances left for the Wildcats to collect wins over teams assured of making the NCAAs, a metric that matters to the selection committee when it comes time to hand out the high seeds.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 11
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-0
NCAA projection: No. 2 seed
Comment: The showdown Thursday night at Arizona begins a stretch of four consecutive road games, concluding next weekend at USC.
USC
NET Ranking: No. 26
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-1
NCAA projection: No. 6 seed
Comment: The deeper you dive, the less impressive USC's resume looks. The signature victory is … err … we'll get back to you.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 38
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The February schedule is rugged for WSU, starting this week in the Bay Area. Then comes Arizona at home and trips to Eugene and Los Angeles. If the Cougars are still standing at that point, the NCAAs might be within reach.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 58
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-2
NCAA projection: No. 11 seed
Comment: Of note within the analytics: According to the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, the Ducks are No. 25 nationally in adjusted offense but only No. 118 in adjusted defense.
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 91
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-6
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: As I'm sure Stanford fans would agree, Stanford is having the most Stanford of seasons.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 94
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-6
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: A week ago, the Buffaloes were coming off a win at Oregon and moving into bubble range. After getting swept in Washington, they couldn't see the bubble from a perch atop the Flatirons.
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 129
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-5
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: With both Oregon and Arizona visiting Salt Lake City, the Utes have a spectacular chance to spoil something for somebody.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 131
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-11
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: On the bright side: Each day the Bears are No. 131 is a day they aren't No. 132 … or much worse.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 136
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Huskies are just a few favorable results from being alone in third place and I cannot believe I'm typing this sentence.
Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 152
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-10
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 4-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: In the middle of a five-games-from-hell stretch against Arizona and the L.A. schools. So far, the Devils are 0-2.
Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 222
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-10
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-5
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Lowest-rated Power Six team in the country, although, to be fair, Georgia is close.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
