Estimated read time: 3-4 minutes
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Five of the BCS's six computer rankings are now releasing weekly updates. Four of them are out after Week 6, and they don't contain particularly good news for BYU.
Anderson & Hester: Utah 6th, BYU 19th.
Massey Ratings: Utah 4th, BYU 31st
Billingley Rankings: Utah 9th, BYU 10th
Sagarin (ELO Chess) Ratings: Utah 5th, BYU 41st
Colley Matrix: Utah 5th, BYU 25th
*Note: the Wolfe Ratings will be released on the date of the first BCS Standings release (October 19th).
**Note: if a team is not ranked by the computers in their Top 25, it receives no points. Points are awarded on an inverse basis (25 for #1, 24 for #2, etc.). In BCS calculations, four computer scores (six utilized rankings minus the highest and lowest) are combined, and then divided by 100 for the overall computer ranking, which is one-third of the overall BCS Standings score. The Coaches' and Harris Polls account for the other two-thirds (with scores determined by dividing poll vote points by total poll vote points available). The three scores are totaled and then averaged for the overall BCS score.
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The BYU-Utah disparity in computer rankings is so wide and the gap in the popular polls so narrow, that by using the five computer rankings available this morning (and assigning the average score for a theoretical 6th ranking, then dropping highest and lowest scores), today's BCS Standings would look like this:
Utah: .612
BYU: .497
Last week, using the four computer rankings available (and not dropping highest and lowest scores), BYU held a slim lead. This week, after BYU's win over Utah State and Utah's win over Oregon State, BYU's numbers began to plummet, Utah's numbers stayed strong, and BYU is now playing from behind.
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Prior to the release of the first BCS Standings, BYU will host New Mexico and visit TCU. Utah will visit Wyoming and host Colorado State. Assuming two BYU wins, BYU's computer quotient will improve, but whether it will improve enough to negate Utah's current advantage is tough to predict.
Parenthetically, two BYU wins should keep BYU in the popular polls' Top 10, and should TCU return to the rankings between now and October 16th, a win in Fort Worth could give the Cougars a boost in the polls as well.
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BYU defensive backs will get a lot of work in run support this week. New Mexico is ranked 114th nationally in pass yardage, and 117th in pass efficiency. New QB Brad Gruner is completing 41% of his passes since taking over for injured UNM QB Donovan Porterie. Lobo RB Rodney Ferguson is expected to return after missing the Wyoming win with a strained shoulder.
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The NCAA lists 17 stat categories in its weekly Team Rankings, and this week, BYU is ranked in the top 20 nationally in 11 of the 17 categories. BYU's lowest-ranked categories are Rushing Offense, at 77th (averaging 133.8 yards per game), and Punt Returns, at 88th (averaging 6.3 yards per return).
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You can hear Bronco Mendenhall's weekly press conference live this morning at 10:00am here on ksl.com, by tuning into the X-Stream audio channel (lower right side panel).
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