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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120235
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 12 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 06N92W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
07N101W TO 05N115W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND W ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND
121W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL S OF 02N. BY SAT
EVENING...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR W AS 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
THE LOW PRES HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KEEPING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AND SUPPORTING
TRADEWIND FLOW OF MAINLY 10 TO 15 FT. BY SAT A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT.
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL FRESHEN N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 15N BY EARLY
SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AND PREVAILING THROUGH
MON.
LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH
GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT.
$$
AL
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Apr 11 2014 10:35PM EDT
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