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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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000

AXPZ20 KNHC 120235

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0405 UTC SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 06N92W WHERE LOW

LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO

07N101W TO 05N115W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN

75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF

OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD S AND W ACROSS

THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND

121W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL S OF 02N. BY SAT

EVENING...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR W AS 125W.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO

TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF

NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W. THIS LOW

WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH.

THE LOW PRES HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KEEPING THE

PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AND SUPPORTING

TRADEWIND FLOW OF MAINLY 10 TO 15 FT. BY SAT A DEEP LAYER RIDGE

WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT.

TRADE WIND FLOW WILL FRESHEN N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 15N BY EARLY

SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AND PREVAILING THROUGH

MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN

BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF

MEXICO MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE

WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE

AFTERNOON. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH

GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT.

$$

AL

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Apr 11 2014 10:35PM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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