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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF 03N BETWEEN 20 AND 30W AND SOUTH OF
04N BETWEEN 05W AND 10W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF TO JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. FROM THERE...THE
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
EARLIER MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
GULF...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR 20 TO 25 KT
EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE JUST AVAILABLE 0254Z
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WELL SHOWS THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WITH
THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO EAST
NORTH OF THE FRONT. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THE
FRONT...AS PRIMARILY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA DOMINATES. OVER THE NEXT
DAY...THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTS FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ALREADY IN PLACE...LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS SOME
DAYTIME HEATING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A BAND OF HIGHER WATER CONTENT FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA TO WEST OF JAMAICA...WHICH MAY BE
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. BOTH OF THESE MAY HAVE HELPED INDUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY OVER HISPANIOLA AND JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE
NEXT DAY AND THE TPW BAND BREAKS UP...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 15-20 KT...WITH 20-25 KT
NORTHEASTERLIES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA.
...HISPANIOLA...
O SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED OVER OR NEAR
HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF HIGHER WATER CONTENT IN THE VICINITY
OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. BOTH
OF THESE MAY HAVE HELPED INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY OVER
HISPANIOLA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND THE TPW BAND BREAKS UP...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N34W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N58W WITH THE LAST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF
IT ARE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM
OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
32N25W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN
120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH...AN OLD
COLD FRONT...REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A BAND OF
HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...A
WEAK MAXIMUM OF TPW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST AND
IS REACHING SOUTH AMERICA. THIS FEATURE MAY BE A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE...THOUGH NOT YET ANALYZED AS SUCH AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY
ACT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN OVER VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT WESTERLY WIND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC
TODAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EXPECTED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH BEING
TEMPORARILY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE REGION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
LANDSEA
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sun Apr 6 2014 2:05AM EDT
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