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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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416

AXNT20 KNHC 031201

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

705 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH

WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD

FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02

KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR

MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT IS

APPARENT INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N16W...CROSSING

THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 2S25W 2S33W AND 3S37W. CONVECTIVE

PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN

CLUSTERS FROM...THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W...FROM 2N

TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN

26W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 3S TO

THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF

MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NICARAGUA AND

HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND

NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...

COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N86W 27N90W

22N98W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS

INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN

INLAND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE

TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...

LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT

PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 27N94W IN THE

NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF

TEXAS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO...AND THEN THE FRONT CURVES

NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS

BIG BEND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE EXTENDS FROM THE

MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS

TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A

1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W...TO THE ABACO

ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS

SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

NEAR 25N94W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N

TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF 1000 FEET OR LOWER...WITH FOG AND

VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE

PLATFORMS THAT ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD

CEILINGS ARE ELSEWHERE AT...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...

KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF

TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL

PLAINS...WITH SOME RAIN STILL IN PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW

CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA...WITH RAIN IN SOME

PARTS ALSO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF

MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF

2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST

OF PERRY FLORIDA. SOME VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG

HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE

LAST FEW HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND

THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT

GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA

BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO

SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR

SECTIONS OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W IN

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE

CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT

REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR

ANGUILLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON

EITHER SIDE OF 24N55W 21N59W 17N63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND

POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE

TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 14N TO 20N

BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE

WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES

16N69W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 76W

INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-

HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200

UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND

PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.09 IN

GUADELOUPE AND TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN

PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...

AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE

DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA

HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25

KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 16N

BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND

78W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST

WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE

NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES

HISPANIOLA...BASED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE

CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN

SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER

SANTO DOMINGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING

REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST

FEW HOURS AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT SOME OBSERVATION

SITES.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS

DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW

WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA

TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD

ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR

THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY TO

NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE

REST OF THE TIME.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO

24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR

16N69W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH

32N52W TO 26N55W TO 20N60W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE

CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR ANGUILLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF

THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE

POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N55W 21N59W

17N63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF

THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE

PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01

KNHC...WAS 0.57 FOR BERMUDA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS

TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A

1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W...TO THE ABACO

ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS

SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

NEAR 25N94W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS

NEAR 24N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE

NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN

28W AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH

PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N27W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N30W

TO 29N36W 25N44W 18N57W...AND TO 16N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR

MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 18N63W. EXPECT

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10

FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF

28N. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10

FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 64W...

AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W. A SECOND AREA OF

CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9

FEET FROM 12N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 43W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN

CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25

KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO

THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Mar 3 2014 7:01AM EST

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The Associated Press

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