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SALT LAKE CITY — The Jazz are still in the thick of the postseason picture. They still actually control their own destiny and the season is far from over, but, regardless of the what happens this season, the Jazz will need to forge ahead very soon.
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The Jazz are a half-game out of the playoffs, equal in the loss column with the Lakers, but still control their destiny. The Jazz still have a daunting task ahead of them though and could start tumbling out of the picture, which would lead to the natural thought of next season.
This season might be the biggest crossroads of a season and situation as the Jazz have ever seen. More than when John Stockton and Karl Malone were done and probably scarier than the Deron Williams-Jerry Sloan fallout.
Both of those situations were left with upside of what could this team do? New stars stepping in, trade assets and a lack of expectation had people looking forward to what could be next.
What could be next is one of the greatest discussions for fans and the great downfall for coaches, general managers and organizations overall.
Right now the Jazz are in the post-Williams fallout. Al Jefferson is the key cog, like it or not, and Tyrone Corbin is trying to use him as such, like it or not.
We have almost a decade of evidence now that Jefferson's failings on defense outweigh his very real value on offense.His teams have generally been worse with him on the floor than with him on the bench, and that's been true on the defensive end in almost every season in which he's played meaningful minutes, per NBA.com and 82games.com.
–Zach Lowe of Grantland
Zach Lowe of ESPN's Grantland wrote about the change that was going to have to take place with Corbin and Jefferson. He went through a litany of stats and facts about what the Jazz are doing wrong and where the Jazz can go from here.
"We have almost a decade of evidence now that Jefferson's failings on defense outweigh his very real value on offense," Lowe wrote. "His teams have generally been worse with him on the floor than with him on the bench, and that's been true on the defensive end in almost every season in which he's played meaningful minutes, per NBA.com and 82games.com."
Jefferson has immense offensive value, but his defense is simply poor. It has been pointed out a lot and there is no real answer why. Watching the Grizzlies game on Monday anyone could see Jefferson playing a surprisingly good brand of defense that lead the Jazz to hold the Grizzlies to 9 points in the third.
At the same time it is clear that he doesn't have whatever that brand of basketball in him every night. Watch how often opposing teams run the pick-and-roll when he is in compared to when he is out.
None of this should be new to Jazz fans. Most should have at least heard of it. Do the Jazz have an answer for it in the future, Bradford Doolitle of Basketball Prospectus wrote they do.
In Doolittle's look at the most improved sophomore big men Enes Kanter gets highlighted. Doolittle seemed to imply that the transition from Jefferson to Kanter could be very smooth.
"Jazz fans nervous about a possible post-Al Jefferson era have to be sleeping better after Kanter's play this month. He's averaged 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in six games while shooting 68 percent from the floor."
[Enes Kanter's] wins above replacement for the month would translate to more than 10 for the full season, which would mark him as one of the top 30-35 players in the league.
–Bradford Doolittle, Basketball Prospectus
Kanter was ranked as the sixth-most improved sophomore big, which isn't that good when you figure that sample size, but this last nugget is, "His wins above replacement for the month would translate to more than 10 for the full season, which would mark him as one of the top 30-35 players in the league."
The wins above replacement is tricky, but basically that is saying that compared to what else is out there, he is in the top 30-35 in the league. That could mean that he is among the 40 most valuable players in the league.
Lowe wrote that most likely one of either Jefferson or Paul Millsap will go, if not both, and that the real question for this offseason is where will the Jazz get their point guard play from?
"The free-agent market for point guards both this summer and in the summer of 2014 is ugly. The top-tier free agents, and even some of the second-tier guys, are restricted. Utah is either going to have to sign a decent placeholder unrestricted guy (Jose Calderon, Beno Udrih, old frenemy Devin Harris, et al.), make a home-run offer for a restricted free agent in line for a big deal (Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings, Bledsoe next summer), or make a slightly above-market offer to a flawed restricted free agent with a stagnant game and an unclear positional future (Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, et al.)."
With a young point guard and the "Core Four" or Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks the Jazz could have a solid team for years, but according to Lowe it might not start next year.
With the NCAA tournament starting it is a good time to look at players the Jazz could be targeting. There are three highly rated point guards "expected" to enter the draft. Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State, Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse and Trey Burke of Michigan.
All of them will play on the 21st. Smart will play Oregon at 2:40, Carter-Williams will play at 7:57 against Montana and Burke plays South Dakota State at 5:15.
All three are expected to be lottery picks, with Smart mocked in the top-3.
If somehow the Jazz can square away their point guard position the role players will need to find their spot. ESPN's Rumor Central wrote about Travis Leslie's situation, "Travis Leslie's 10-day contract with the Utah Jazz expires on Tuesday and it sounds like head coach Tyrone Corbin wants the team to offer the guard a second 10-day deal."
Leslie still hasn't played for the Jazz, but if the Jazz are looking to shorten their bench he could be brought back next year for cheap to see if he could develop.
Another name that is curious is Randy Foye. He has started almost every game this season. He has the single-season 3-point shooting record, but he might not have a chance to stick around to try again. Devin O'Barr of Rantsports wrote that he might simply be a casualty of the youth movement.
"Some of the older players like Randy Foye are going to be casualties to the rebuilding, but he will surely find work elsewhere, given his productivity this season."
O'Barr added that Foye would likely be required to come off the bench and he might want to have the chance to start elsewhere.
If the Jazz need a replacement 3-point shooter ESPN's Rumor Central has another thought. The name Martell Webster might not strike fear into opponents, but his pure shooting ability as a small forward could be intriguing to Dennis Lindsey. Webster could fit the Spurs mold of a player with one superb specialty.
"The Jazz are below league-average when it comes to shooting the 3, and could very well lose Mo Williams and Randy Foye in free agency. Webster would fill a big need as a small forward who could come off the bench and bomb away."
How the Jazz build in the future isn't known yet. They could try to try to fill their roster with Spurs players, basically a bench loaded with shooters, or they look for a big splash with one free agent.
That will come with opportunity and action. A lot could depend on where the Jazz finish. Even though it is one spot different there is a big difference from being in the playoffs and ending up in the lottery.
