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SALT LAKE CITY — The recent economic crisis may have been a historic nightmare for financial markets, but the next 12 months could yield a historic bounce back.
That message was conveyed Thursday to a capacity audience at a luncheon at the Marriott City Center Hotel in downtown Salt Lake City.
Tingey Advisors Inc. unveiled its forecast for the 2011 financial markets. Principals Alan and Jon Tingey predicted a continued slow recovery for the economy, both nationally and in Utah.
"Our economy is looking brighter," Alan Tingey told the audience. "Instead of 1.1 million jobs created last year, we think it's going to be closer to 2.5 million (this year)."
Our economy is looking brighter. Instead of 1.1 million jobs created last year, we think it's going to be closer to 2.5 million (this year).
–Alan Tingey
He said the long-term employment outlook should also improve.
"Our forecast is that jobs will improve slowly to reach a normal level over the next five years," he said. "What we don't know (yet) is what is a normal level."
"Normal" could be around 6 percent unemployment when the national economy eventually recovers fully.
Jon Tingey said the state and national economy would still experience some "shocks" in the next several months as they move toward recovery. But Utah should fare a bit better than some other states because its fundamentals are more stable and "our economy is more vibrant than the rest of the nation," he said.
He said as private investors gain more confidence in the economy, they will infuse more capital into medium and small businesses — which are the job creators in this country.
"If we get private investment coming back into the market (and) into the economy, then jobs will grow," Jon Tingey said.
As for the investment markets, he said stocks should continue to rise through the first half of the year before weakening a bit in the second half of 2011. Overall, the market should improve from what it has experienced recently.
"By the end of the year, the stock market will be higher than it was at the beginning of the year," he said.
E-mail: jlee@desnews.com
