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SALT LAKE CITY — Two weeks into 2013 and the Apple rumor mill has already produced a grab bag of speculation. Based on the consensus of various news sources and analysts, here are the top five rumors circulating since the new year:
- Apple gearing up for great year in ChinaApple's CEO Tim Cook recently returned from a trip to China, where he spent considerable time in Beijing with the chairman of China Mobile, Xi Guohua. While no confirmed details of their meeting or discussion topics have leaked, an in-person meeting with leadership of a network with 700 million subscribers indicates Apple's interest in expanding its Chinese market share with the largest mobile network in the world. Public remarks by Cook confirmed Apple also intends to expand retail operations to 25 locations in China and to expand Apple's digital presence by deploying new servers for iTunes, App Store, and other Internet services in China. Such a deployment would improve download speeds, performance, and otherwise enable more Chinese consumers to access Apple products and services. Finally, Chinese web portal Tencent reported Apple plans to open research and development facilities in China. Such a move could be part of Tim Cook's plans to smooth the approvals process for Apple products so new hardware can go to market in China in conjunction with product launches in the United States.
- New iPads, iPhones coming sooner rather than laterUnsurprisingly, Apple is at work on new hardware for release this year. Last year, Apple launched the iPad mini and a new "generation 4" iPad less than 6 months after the release of the 3rd-generation iPad, upsetting most reports and analyst expectations. There are now rumors circulating that new iPads may arrive as early as March and a new iPhone 5s as early as June.
While this would be breaking the historical pattern of new device and new software once a year, a more frequent release cycle may help to smooth Apple's sales figures and may help combat competitors with more rapid release cycles.
June and March releases of next generation iPhone and iPad products, respectively, would be consistent with historical product launches in March as well as at Apple's annual developer conference, typically held in early June.
- Cheaper iPhone? Maybe notSources at Digitimes and the Wall Street Journal have reported that Apple's next strategic move to combat less expensive competitors, particular in emerging markets like India and China, includes producing a consumer variety of the iPhone. Using less expensive parts and replacing metal casings with plastic, these reports suppose that by bending to economic pressure to lower prices, Apple may gain significant market share where Android, Windows phones, and feature phones are otherwise more available. Such reports were refuted by Phil Schiller, Senior Vice President over marketing at Apple, who said in a recent Reuters report, “We are not like other companies, launching multiple products at once, then hoping one will get the attention of consumers."
Strangely enough, however, Reuters withdrew the article, citing "substantial changes to the story." While this does put a strange twist on the rumor of a cheap iPhone, Apple's own pricing and track record and penchant for flawless design still dampen the likelihood of such a product ever existing.
- iPhone sales demand halved? Probably notFollowing a dramatic series of reports and analyses, Apple's stock plunged below $500 for the first time in 11 months. Reports emerged that Apple had cut component orders by half, citing weak demand forecasts for the iPhone 5 moving into spring and summer sales. These reports, originally published by the Wall Street Journal, claimed that Apple had halved display purchases from 65 million to around 30 million for spring quarter. Subsequent analyses refute the claims, citing consistent sales forecasts of 35 million iPhones for what is typically a less productive quarter anyway, not to mention iPods, iPads, and other products. Combined with general softening that happens prior to new product launches (like the rumored iPhone 5s), these doomsday reports are being branded as largely unfounded, so much so that the Wall Street Journal removed reference to the 65 million figure in its original article.
- The future of the iPhoneEventually, someone is going to create a better iPhone, iPad, or other "smart" device that becomes indispensable, and Apple knows that this someone has to be them if they plan on dominating the next decade of devices.
With the launch of the iPad mini, many analysts have reported that this new iPad feels like the "real iPad" — the size, the weight, the thickness is all just right.
Jon Mitchell from Read Write Web suggests that the next frontier could be the smart watch. "A watch could be a "phone," couldn't it? ... It's the phone that's the awkward size. That's the thing I drop all the time. If I had a smart watch and a tablet, I wouldn't need anything in my pocket at all."
Many Android handset makers have concluded that the connection between the tablet and smartphone is the future; finding the balance between aesthetics and functionality is now the focus, as is evidenced by the Samsung Galaxy's significantly larger screen size compared to iPhones and other smart phones. 2013's rumor mill is already off to a great start. As we find out which rumors are true and which are just good stories, the future of what we put in our pockets (and perhaps on our wrists) will become clearer for Apple and its competitors.
Brent Anderson is a mobile app consultant and developer specializing in iOS. He studies Information Systems at Brigham Young University and loves connecting businesses with technology in new and valuable ways.
