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SALT LAKE CITY — When the primary schedule was finalized for the Republican presidential election, Utah's primary date fell as the last state to vote. Few expected Utah to matter in the delegate count, particularly given the front-runner status of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading up to primary season.
Prior to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Romney appeared to be the inevitable nominee, with a handful of presidential hopefuls making quick surges to the top, only to fall as quickly as they rose. It was believed that Romney would likely secure the necessary 1,144 delegates relatively early, with other presidential hopefuls bowing out along the way.
Enter former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Polling in last place for much of the race prior to the first caucus, Santorum appeared to be the most unlikely candidate to do well in any caucus or primary. However, in a close battle, Santorum secured a hard fought victory in Iowa, momentarily shifting the momentum of a highly focused spotlight on Romney.
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Since Iowa, Santorum has won over the southern voting bloc, becoming a true competitor to that of Romney. And as the volatile election cycle has recently shown, Romney will struggle to get the necessary number of delegates needed to secure the nomination before the Republican convention in August, which means Utah's 40 delegates matter.
In a hypothetical projection of the final 26 contests, there is a high probability that Utah could be the deciding factor in the nomination process. And it is not very often that Utah is the deciding factor in any national election.
The delegate math does not add up well for Santorum, with Romney leading by more than 250 delegates as of this writing. Even if Santorum wins a majority of the upcoming delegates, it will be nearly impossible to secure the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination. At the mid point in the primary cycle, the best thing for Santorum is to divert enough delegates from Romney to keep him from getting to 1,144.
- Polling Hours: 7 a.m. - 8 p.m.
- Delegate Selection: Winner-Take-All
- Closed Primary
Oftentimes, the sentiment around the state of Utah reflects the belief that votes do not matter, especially when Utah is the last state to vote in the primary season. Had Romney been the inevitable nominee as earlier projected, many Utahns would be left with a ballot that ultimately had only Romney's name on it because the nomination was finalized.
However, Romney's inevitability is still at play and Utah's vote actually matters.
And while the state is likely to give Romney its delegates, as it did in 2008 when Romney received 89 percent of the votes, it comes as no surprise the remaining four candidates will make a strong campaigning push in Utah, especially if it is the deciding factor in the Republican nomination.
