Romney's Republican nomination future and South Carolina

SALT LAKE CITY -- The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are now behind the Republican presidential hopefuls, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney securing an early lead. But many look to South Carolina as the turning point in the Republican race, particularly for the Romney campaign.

After leaving New Hampshire with a 16 percent lead over his closest competitor, Ron Paul, Romney's campaign shifted its focus on South Carolina, but downplayed his chances of winning, saying it is likely Romney will not do as well in the Palmetto State. However, according to Real Clear Politics, which tracks national and state polling numbers, Romney is a 10-point favorite in South Carolina, with Rick Santorum slowly gaining momentum as Romney's closest competitor.

But how Romney's success in Iowa and New Hampshire translates to South Carolina is still up in the air. If Romney manages to hang on to his lead and pull out his third consecutive victory on Jan. 21, it is likely several candidates will suspend their campaigns, including Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry, who are already struggling to gain support.

The whittling down of potential nominees would allow for the Republican Party to rally around a single candidate as they prepare for the tough battle with incumbent President Barack Obama.

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The fight, however, will not be easy for Romney in a strongly conservative state with a large voting bloc of evangelical Christians, who have expressed problems supporting a Mormon candidate. Additionally, Romney is perceived as more of a moderate conservative, which helps him in places like New Hampshire, but not in South Carolina.

Similarly, Iowa has a large conservative base, with many voters identifying as evangelical Christians, and Romney only won the state by seven votes, with a majority of evangelical voters selecting Rick Santorum. However, Romney did gain traction with independent, very conservative and evangelical voters in New Hampshire, which may be the credibility Romney needs to secure a win in South Carolina.

Additionally, Romney was recently endorsed by former Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, who carried South Carolina in 2008. McCain's endorsement may help Romney's credibility in a state that will likely look to a more conservative candidate, namely Gingrich, Santorum or Perry. In 2008, Romney came in a distant fourth place, with McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson all garnering more votes.

Meanwhile, Gingrich, who has made it seemingly a personal vendetta against Romney, plans to flood the state with negative ads criticizing Romney about his past with Bain Capital. Gingrich, who is from neighboring state Georgia, is one of two candidates who could give Romney a difficult run in South Carolina, but has lost a lot of momentum and credibility since attacking Romney.

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"We understood for a long time that the Obama people would come after free enterprise," Romney said Wednesday morning. "We're a little surprised to see Newt Gingrich as the first witness for the prosecution, but I don't think that's going to hurt my efforts."

While Romney's rivals plan to hurt his credibility with negative campaign ads in South Carolina, the opposite may come to fruition, with Romney's record being vetted before the Obama campaign has an opportunity to attack him.

"Frankly, if I can't take a few shots coming from my colleagues on the Republican side, I'm not ready for Barack Obama," Romney added.

The winner of South Carolina has gone on to win the Republican nomination since 1980 and could be the deciding factor in Romney's opportunity to secure the Republican nomination. Although the outcome has a major impact on Romney's future success, he still has an opportunity to secure the nomination if South Carolina doesn't fall his way.

For the other Republican presidential hopefuls, a win in South Carolina is a near must to remain a viable alternative to Romney and his road to the nomination.

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