Katie Couric: Will she stay or will she go?

Estimated read time: 2-3 minutes

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The biggest guessing game in network news -- whether NBC Today star Katie Couric will leave to anchor The CBS Evening News -- has been going on for months now, and speculation has far outweighed any answers.

"I think this is one of those deals that isn't done until it's done, and right now I don't think anybody really knows what Katie will decide," CBS Evening News anchor Bob Schieffer says. "It's up to Katie to decide, and when she does, we'll all know."

But many observers are betting that Couric will head for CBS when her contract with Today, her home for the past 15 years, expires on May 31. At CBS she would make history as the first solo female network news anchor, become a star of the next generation of correspondents at 60 Minutes and could make millions more than the $16 million a year NBC now pays her.

Couric has declined to comment since December, when she pre-empted reporters on a conference call to discuss Today's 10-year winning streak. She said at the time that there's "nothing to announce and nothing to report."

Now, with just two months to go on her contract, both camps are anxious to know what Couric, 49, intends to do. A person close to the negotiations, who asked not to be identified because of the ongoing discussions with Couric, says that the ball is in her court and that executives at CBS and NBC are each "wrestling with the implications" of whatever Couric decides.

Timing is an issue: Networks unveil their fall programs -- and stars -- to advertisers in mid-May. If she decides to join CBS, the network would tout Couric as leading a "new," younger CBS Evening News and the post-Mike Wallace generation at 60 Minutes. If she stays at NBC, Couric could get more prime-time specials.

But for the most part, NBC would position her leaving as a natural -- and expected -- transition on the strongest morning TV franchise (averaging more than 6 million viewers) and the most profitable network news operation.

"While major talent changes on daily network shows often lead to ratings erosion, that may not be the case for Today since ABC is facing its own ratings challenges now on Good Morning America," says Erik Sorenson, a former top CBS and NBC News executive.

Network news analyst Andrew Tyndall agrees. He says Today -- largely thanks to a more engaged Couric -- "rebounded" in recent months and is in a good position to withstand any negatives that might come if Couric leaves.

Four candidates have emerged to replace Couric, and many observers consider Meredith Vieira, host of ABC's The View, a leading contender. But Tyndall questions whether Vieira would want the job. And, he says, it would "be very unlike" NBC to go outside its ranks for a Today anchor.

E-mail pjohnson@usatoday.com

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