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After a few upsets last weekend, the BCS bowl picture is getting a little more clear. Here are our latest bowl projections:
AllState BCS National Championship Game
Alabama vs. Stanford: The trap games that infiltrated the BCS last week have had a major ripple effect in my BCS bowl projections. Oklahoma lost a trap game — they didn’t lose to a team that was better than them. Don’t expect them to get trapped by Oklahoma State. I still think they are going to beat the Cowboys on December 3rd. That would vault an undefeated Stanford team into the national title game after beating Oregon. After Alabama beats LSU in two weeks, they will be waiting for the Cardinal in New Orleans.
Discover Orange BowlClemson vs. West Virginia: Just like Oklahoma had its trap game this week, so did the Mountaineers. I fully expect them to recover to win the Big East and meet Clemson out of the ACC. Even if Clemson ends up undefeated, this may still be where the Tigers end up, given that most view the ACC as a weaker conference than the Pac-12. Therefore, Stanford would get the edge over the Tigers for a spot in the national title.
AllState Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State would fall to the Sugar Bowl if it loses to arch-rival Oklahoma on December 3rd. The Fiesta Bowl would have the first pick of an at-large team after the Rose Bowl and to avoid a rematch between the Cowboys and Sooners, they’d take Boise State. LSU would fall here for an essential home game after losing to Alabama two weeks from now.
Rose Bowl presented by Vizio.Oregon vs. Michigan State: After the Pac-12’s spot in the Rose Bowl is vacated by Stanford’s rise to the national title game, it will likely be filled by Oregon. The Rose Bowl likes to keep its Big 10-vs.-Pac-12 matchup intact if it can. Meanwhile, if the Spartans can make it through their gauntlet of an October, they would be a clear pick to beat Wisconsin in the conference championship game rematch and qualify for the Rose Bowl.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.Oklahoma vs. Boise State: You got it, a rematch of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl thriller. The Sooners will get the Big 12 bid to the desert after beating Oklahoma State. The Broncos will fall short of another national championship game appearance, but they will be a fun opponent for the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl.
Much of this hinges on the last game of the year, between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Right now, I’m still picking the Sooners to beat the Cowboys, but if I were wrong, which has been known to happen, this is what the BCS picture would look like…
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma:
AllState National Championship Game:Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
Discover Orange Bowl:Clemson vs. West Virginia
AllState Sugar Bowl: *LSU vs. Boise StateRose Bowl presented by Vizio:Stanford vs. Michigan State*
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl:Oklahoma vs. Oregon
LOCAL BOWL GAMES
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas:Utah vs. TCU. I still believe the Utes will make it to a bowl game. Their remaining schedule is very week. If they can’t win three out of five to finish the season with the schedule they have ahead, they don’t deserve to go bowling. If they win three or four of their next five, the Utes will be the fifth team to qualify for a bowl in the Pac-12. That would leave them in the Las Vegas Bowl against TCU, who would slot here after Boise State picks up a bid to a BCS bowl.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl.BYU vs. Southern Miss. Regardless of how the Cougars finish up the season, they will end up in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. There they will meet Southern Miss, who should qualify from Conference USA.
Trevor Amicone is the sports director at 88.1 Weber FM "Ogden's Radio Station" and host of the sports talk radio show, "Fully Loaded Sports with Trevor Amicone". Find more of his blogs at TrevorsTopTens.com. Follow him on Twitter at @TrevorAmicone