UCLA students nearly predicted bin Laden's location


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SALT LAKE CITY -- A 2009 study by geography students at UCLA correctly predicted many things about where Osama bin Laden would be hiding. They worked on a class project and came up with a model to predict bin Laden's location.

The students concluded:

  • He would not be living in a cold cave; instead he would be living in a city less then 200 miles away from Tora Bora, his last known location.
  • He would be living in a home with high ceilings and electricity. It would have a fence, cover from trees, and have more than three rooms.

A news release from 2009 said the geographers used simple facts, publicly available satellite imagery and fundamental principles of geography to place bin Laden in one of three buildings in the northwest Pakistan town of Parachinar. Bin Laden was found Sunday in a different city, but most of the students' other predictions were correct.

One professor said if someone were in hiding, they would choose a large town because they would be more likely to be noticed and reported in a small town.

In 2009 a former CIA officer saw the students' report and said it was an interesting starting point.

Written with contributions from Randall Jeppesen.

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