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It's not a lock, but BYU's RPI profile is hinting at the highest seed in school's NCAA Tournament history.
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Since seeding was instituted in 1979, BYU has only been seeded better than 5th twice--
1980: 3 seed; lost to Clemson in second round after first round bye
1988: 4 seed; lost to Louisville in second round after beating Charlotte in first round.
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The question is, can the 2010-11 BYU team match or improve on its best-ever seed? The RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) says "yes."
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I researched RPI and seeding data from 2004-05 through 2009-10, since the last major change in the RPI formula was made effective for the '04-'05 season.
Consider that since December 11th, 2010, BYU has been ranked 9th or better in the RPI. Since December 23rd, BYU has been ranked no lower than 4th. Since January 22nd, BYU has been ranked 1st or 2nd.
Seeing as BYU has been in the top four of the RPI rankings for almost two whole months, let's assume for sake of discussion that BYU is able to finish in the top four of the RPI.
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I examined the top four teams in season-ending RPI and their corresponding NCAA Tournament seeds, covering the six tournaments from 2005-05 through 2009-10, and found (see chart below):
Of the teams that finished in the top four of the RPI, 23 of 24 (96%) were given either a 1 or a 2 seed. The only exception was Kansas, which was #1 in RPI in 2004-05, but was given a 3 seed (the selection committee knew more than the computers that year: KU was upset by 14 seed Bucknell in the first round).
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Interestingly, the #1 RPI team has been given a 1 seed only three times in six years, while the #2 RPI team earned a 1 seed in all six seasons.
Extending down to the top 12 teams in the RPI (three theoretical seed lines deep), 61 of the 72 teams (85%) received a three seed or better.
Of the 11 teams in the RPI Top 12 to receive worse than a 3 seed, the breakdown was follows:
4 seed: four teams (Vanderbilt, #12 RPI 2008; So. Illinois, #7 RPI 2007; Boston College, #9 RPI 2005; Louisville, #12 RPI 2005)
5 seed: six teams (Temple, #8 RPI, 2010; Butler, #12 RPI 2010; Utah, #9 RPI 2009; Drake, #10 RPI 2008; Tennessee, #12 RPI 2007; Pittsburgh, #11 RPI 2006)
7 seed: one team (UNLV, #10 RPI 2007)
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Season-Ending RPI v. NCAA Tournament Seed (in parentheses)
| RPI | 2009-10 | 2008-09 | 2007-08 | 2006-07 | 2005-06 | 2004-05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas (1) | Duke (2) | Tennessee (2) | Ohio State (1) | Duke (1) | Kansas (3) |
| 2 | Kentucky (1) | Pittsburgh (1) | N. Carolina (1) | N. Carolina (1) | Villanova (1) | Illinois (1) |
| 3 | Duke (1) | N. Carolina (1) | Memphis (1) | UCLA (2) | UConn (1) | Washington (1) |
| 4 | W. Virginia (2) | Louisville (1) | UCLA (1) | Wisconsin (2) | Memphis (1) | Duke (1) |
| 5 | Syracuse (1) | Oklahoma (2) | Kansas (1) | Pittsburgh (3) | Ohio St. (2) | Oklahoma St. (2) |
| 6 | Kansas St. (2) | Michigan St. (2) | Texas (2) | Florida (1) | Tennessee (2) | N. Carolina (1) |
| 7 | Georgetown (3) | Memphis (2) | Duke (2) | So. Illinois (4) | Iowa (3) | Wake Forest (2) |
| 8 | Temple (5) | UConn (1) | Georgetown (2) | Memphis (2) | Texas (2) | Arizona (3) |
| 9 | Baylor (3) | Utah (5) | Xavier (3) | Georgetown (2) | Gonzaga (3) | Boston College (4) |
| 10 | New Mexico (3) | Missouri (3) | Drake (5) | UNLV (7) | UCLA (2) | Gonzaga (3) |
| 11 | Villanova (2) | Kansas (3) | Wisconsin (3) | Kansas (1) | Pittsburgh (5) | Kentucky (2) |
| 12 | Butler (5) | Syracuse (3) | Vanderbilt (4) | Tennessee (5) | N. Carolina (3) | Louisville (4) |
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The top two seeds were always found in the top 12 of the RPI, with the following exceptions:
in 2009-10, Ohio State got a 2 seed while ranked 22nd in RPI.
in 2004-05, UConn got a 2 seed while ranked 13th in the RPI.
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Note: all RPI data is from Jerry Palm's collegerpi.com site (subscription required for archived data).
