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SALT LAKE CITY — In 50 days, the nation will celebrate one of the most entertaining weeks of sports: the NCAA tournament. But one question remains unanswered: Is Utah worthy of a tournament invite?
Utah currently sits outside the purview of most tournament prognosticators with a 14-5 overall record and a 5-2 conference record. However, that's starting to change.
The program recently swept the two Washington schools by more than 20 points apiece without its leading scorer in David Collette, who was out for concussion symptoms, and are surging in conference play. But Utah’s schedule, particularly its non-conference list of lackluster opponents, has been a questionable hindrance to what could be described as a surprising season.
With 11 games left in the regular season, the Runnin’ Utes sit in fourth place in the Pac-12 standings. The three teams ahead of them — Arizona, Oregon and UCLA — are all ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and have each proved to be viable contenders for a deep run in March.
Utah has taken two of the three — Arizona and UCLA — down to the wire, narrowly losing in the final minutes of play, and is only one game behind the Bruins in the conference standings. In fact, two of Utah’s other losses this season came against ranked opponents, Butler and Xavier, and that was before Collette and Sedrick Barefield were able to join the team.
Prior to the start of the season, Utah was picked to finish eighth in the conference — a reasonable spot for a team that lost an NBA talent in Jakob Poeltl and 10 other guys to graduation or because they wanted to transfer for various reasons. By most accounts, this season was expected to be a rebuilding year as new athletes acclimated to Division I basketball.
Lorenzo Bonam, one of only a handful of returning Utah players, said being picked to finish eighth was “disrespectful.”
“They really underestimate us because we got a lot of freshmen, a lot of new bodies, a lot of new people, and they really didn’t know the talent that they have,” he said. “Now, they’re starting to see it, and they’re starting to change their minds.”
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Against Washington Saturday, Utah had three players score more than 20 points, including surging freshman Devon Daniels, who finished with 24 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists.
Utah scored 60 points in the paint against the Huskies and finished with 94 total points. It was the fifth consecutive game in which Utah’s offense has scored more than 80 points — a feat that has not been done since the 1993-94 Utes had six consecutive games with more than 80 points.
The offense is efficient, shooting 54.1 percent and 40.8 percent from behind the arc in conference play. Five guys — Kyle Kuzma, Collette, Bonam, Daniels and Barefield — are averaging double figures. Additionally, Kuzma is averaging a double-double at 15.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. He has 10 double-doubles this season.
Utah scores, on average, 1.157 points per possession, while holding opponents to 0.950 points per possession. With an average of 70.6 possessions in conference games, Utah is outscoring opponents by an average of 14.6 points. Utah’s effective field goal percentage is 57.4 percent, which is in the top 15 in the nation, and have four starters with field-goal percentages above 60 percent.
“I don’t know if there are many teams in the league that will execute as well as Utah does,” Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar told media on Saturday. “Utah really, really executes.”
Utah’s average RPI win is 182, with its average loss an average RPI of 27. In the previous two years when Utah played in the NCAA tournament, Utah’s average RPI win was 101 and 140, and average RPI loss was 23 and 33, respectively. Utah continues to execute at a high rate but needs more quality wins if it wants to be considered a tournament team.
While a loss to San Francisco, a team with an RPI of 104, is Utah’s worst setback this season, it’s not a major concern. Last season, Utah lost a game to Stanford, who had an RPI of 83, and still made the tournament; however, Utah had 11 wins against teams with an RPI above 50 and was 7-1 against teams with an RPI between 51-100.
The biggest factor against Utah is that its schedule is lopsided toward teams with an RPI of 101 or higher. Utah is 1-4 against teams with an RPI from 1-50, 0-1 against 51-100, 4-0 against 101-200, and 7-0 against 201+. In the final 11 games, Utah will have approximately six times to balance out its lopsided RPI wins, with the biggest coming against Oregon, which has an RPI of 13, two of those times.
While a win Thursday against Oregon may not guarantee a spot in the tournament, it would boost a résumé in need of more signature wins. It’s possible that Utah could still make the tournament losing both games to Oregon, but the Utes would have to likely win its remaining nine games and then do well in the Pac-12 tournament.
