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The question was tweeted in to ESPN's Bracketology guru Joe Lunardi last Saturday, from none other than Matt Carlino's little brother Jack. The question was this: "What does BYU need to do to get in (the NCAA Tournament)?" Lunardi's answer was brief, perhaps a little cold, but to the point: "Stop losing to every tourney-level team they play."
Lunardi's response represents the slightest of exaggerations, since BYU owns a win over projected Big Sky Conference tourney rep Weber State, but his point underscores the importance of tomorrow night's game at Gonzaga, particularly in light of last Wednesday's last-second loss to projected tourney entrant St. Mary's.
Of the 68 teams in Lunardi's latest bracket projection, BYU has played five, going 1-4 in the process (win at Weber State, losses at Iowa State, at Baylor, v. Notre Dame and v. St. Mary's), with at least three more games scheduled against the Zags and Gaels. Had the final 2.5 seconds against St. Mary's gone just a little differently, the "no big wins" rap on BYU would have been somewhat muted, and the Cougars would of course have retained their solo lead atop the West Coast Conference. In those respects, Matthew Dellavedova's desperation three-pointer had significant ramifications, but a BYU win in Spokane would all but erase the effects of that shot.
When chasing the conference crown, any home loss is a serious setback, even if it comes against one of the league's top teams. Having dropped one at the Marriott Center, and considering the home records of Gonzaga and St. Mary's, it is incumbent on BYU to "get one back," whether that means a win on the Zags' or Gaels' home floor, or having either of those teams "slip up"—either at home, or by losing on the road against any of the WCC's bottom six teams. Examples from last season: St. Mary's falling at home to Loyola Marymount, and Gonzaga losing at San Francisco.
A BYU home win over Gonzaga could be considered all but essential to BYU's conference title and NCAA Tournament hopes, but a road win over the Zags would have, for the time being, substantially greater impact. It's hard to overstate just how big tomorrow night's game is for the Cougars, and how tall the task, taking into account Gonzaga's homecourt portfolio.
In the McCarthey Athletic Center (aka "The Kennel"), Gonzaga is 113-8 since the venue's opening in 2004. The Zags are 57-6 in non-conference home games; 56-2 in West Coast Conference competition. Gonzaga's last conference home loss came on January 27th, 2011, when St. Mary's emerged as a two-point winner. Among WCC teams, only Santa Clara (in February of 2007) can join the Gaels in boasting a win at the Zags' new home venue. Earlier this season, Gonzaga did suffer a non-conference homecourt setback, when on December 8th, Illinois walked away with an 85-74 victory.
So, Gonzaga is not totally invulnerable at home, only incredibly difficult to beat there, with that 93.4% win rate at The Kennel. As for emotional vulnerability, it could be a factor tomorrow night, considering the way the Bulldogs lost at Butler on the weekend. It could be argued that Gonzaga's heartbreak at Hinkle was even more painful than last week's "Dellavedagger," since the Zags actually had possession of the ball and the lead with 3.5 seconds to go, but the difference comes in the significance of each outcome.
BYU's home loss had consequences that could greatly impact both the Cougars' conference title chances and Selection Sunday hopes. The Zags' road loss came out of league and did little if anything to damage their national resume; indeed, after the defeat, Gonzaga remained in the national polls' top 10. Yes, the way Mark Few's team lost had to be frustrating and followed by a few days of wondering "what if?", but he should really have little trouble getting his guys ready for BYU.
The Cougars already went through their bounce-back routine, easily handling San Diego on Saturday at the Marriott Center, three days after the St. Mary's setback. Five days removed from their shocker at Butler, the Zags will be expected to shake off the disappointment. Should, however, the Cougars get the Bulldogs down early on Thursday, it could put a couple of dents in their mental armor.
Gonzaga and BYU are by most measures the top two teams in the West Coast Conference. They are 1-2 in RPI and Pomeroy ratings, and the Cougars actually lead the Bulldogs in Efficiency Margin--the difference between a team's efficiency rating on offense and the corresponding rating on defense. In league play, they are the top two scoring and shooting teams. If there is any notable current discrepancy in performance, it may be on defense, where BYU leads the WCC in scoring and field goal percentage allowed during conference play.
Yes, BYU was handled twice by the Zags last season, but the Cougars had won the previous two meetings, including the first get-together in 2011-12; there is no historical monkey to shake off the Cougars' collective back. BYU has a scorer in Tyler Haws to match the production of Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk. BYU will be hard-pressed to match the Zags' inside size, but Dave Rose's increasing reliance on zone defense may help mitigate any mismatch on the Zags' offensive end. Despite their depth of size, the Zags are 8th overall and 9th in conference play in blocked shots, and in league play have a negative rebound margin.
Whichever metrics are employed, there is every reason to believe tomorrow night's contest will be extremely competitive, pitting two teams pacing the conference in performance and prestige. In the WCC, the games don't get much better. For BYU, the game couldn't be any bigger.
