Aging satellites could affect accuracy in predicting major storms


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SALT LAKE CITY — Early warning is critical to saving lives when severe weather hits, but a look at the U.S. weather satellites shows we could soon be without the information that helps predict major storms.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office's 2013 Report says potential "gaps in weather satellite data" is a "high risk."

According to the report, current satellite systems are aging and the replacement plans could leave us without our eye in the sky.

Many of us are used to seeing photographs taken by weather satellites — pictures from space showing swirling clouds and storms. We see them every day on the nightly news.

"When you look at an image like that, you can actually get a sense of the state of the atmosphere; and that's an important thing," said Jay Mace, professor of agricultural sciences at the University of Utah.

Forecasters rely on these satellite images and data to give advanced warning when severe weather is coming.

"They are used in the models that predict the weather, predict the tracks of hurricanes; you know, predict how much rain we're gonna get, floods, droughts, etc.," Mace said.

But we could soon lose that information.

Government watchdogs have found the satellites we use now are getting old. And even if new satellites are launched on schedule, we could be without weather satellite data in the afternoon and early mornings for as many as five years.

"Without an accurate prediction of the initial state, you can't predict what the future state will be," Mace said.

He knows how critical it is to have weather satellite data several times a day. Without it, the GOA report says two major weather events could have been forecasted wrong.

"Snowmageddon" in February 2010 dumped nearly 3 feet of snow across the Northeast. If afternoon satellite data hadn't been available, the GAO says forecasts would have predicted a much less intense storm, and models would have under-forecasted the amount of snow by at least 10 inches.

Another "very simple and pertinent example," Mace said, is Hurricane Sandy. Similarly, a gap in afternoon weather satellite in October 2012 would have led forecasters to predict a much different path for Superstorm Sandy. Instead of accurately predicting landfall in New Jersey, weather models would have shown the deadly storm remaining at sea.

"Without that satellite information, we're really regressing back to where we were 20 years ago," Mace said.

There are plans to replace the aging satellites; and if the current ones do fail, Mace says the U.S. can get its data from European and Chinese satellites.

Another option: We can cross our fingers and hope everything works out fine.

"We can hope that we're lucky and that the satellites last longer than expected. That often happens," Mace said.

The National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration is currently working to close these gaps. Officials there issued a statement saying, "Our top priority is ensuring NOAA's National Weather Service is able to maintain the accuracy and timeliness of its forecasts and warnings."

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Mike Headrick

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