Carlino, Davies, Haws face 'Big' expectations

PROVO — The month of February began with BYU on the NCAA Tournament bubble. At 17-5 on the season, the Cougars had a respectable RPI, and despite a lack of marquee wins, no bad losses on their postseason portfolio. February is historically Dave Rose's best month of the season, and when the month opened with a 96-79 home win over dangerous Santa Clara, Rose's all-time February record had improved to 43-7.

The home win over the Broncos featured sophomore point guard Matt Carlino scoring a season-high 28 points on 10-for-17 shooting, including a trio of three-pointers, a perfect performance from the free throw line and six assists. In the preceding game — at Pepperdine — Carlino sealed the deal with late free throws and a clutch three-pointer, and was subsequently named the West Coast Conference Player of the Week for the first time in his career. He hasn't really been the same since.

At the time of his award, Carlino was averaging 17.1 points per game in league play, shooting 46 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point line and 77 percent from the free throw line. His assist-to-turnover ratio was 2.2-to-1. In short, this talented transfer was playing at an all-WCC level.

Since his conference honor on February 4th, over the last five games, Carlino is averaging 8.0 ppg, while shooting 33 percent from the field, 18 percent from the arc and 57 percent from the stripe, with an a/to ratio of 1.4-to-1.

BYU is 2-3 in those five games, and has seen its Big Dance bubble burst. Even a home upset over No. 2 Gonzaga tomorrow night won't change the Cougars' postseason fortunes. BYU will have to win the conference tournament in Las Vegas to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

BYU's current swoon should not be pinned on Carlino. But as BYU's floor leader and joining with Tyler Haws and Brandon Davies to comprise the team's "Big Three," he has to play at a higher level for the Cougars to stay in the game with Gonzaga and then have a chance to roll some hot dice in Vegas. Over the last five games, he is the only member of BYU's top trio not performing to average standards.

It's no secret: BYU's success is largely dependent on the performance of its three best players. Haws, Davies and Carlino are the Cougars top three scorers, top three players in minutes played, shots taken, shots made, free throws taken, free throws made, and are the only three Cougars averaging double-figure scoring. They don't always play well together on the same night, but when they have done so, BYU has yet to lose a game this season.

When BYU loses, at least one of the three will have had an off night. Given BYU's personnel and depth limitations, the Cougars, in their most important games, cannot afford any one of the trio turning in a subpar performance.

Not to diminish in any way the importance of the team's role players and bench contributors, but in each of BYU's nine losses, you can identify at least one member of the Big Three who struggled to play as expected or needed.

*Fouled out

As you can observe, in every one of BYU's losses, either Haws, Carlino or Davies, or some combination thereof, accounted for a rough night, in one or many ways. The first loss to St. Mary's was the one setback in which each player most closely matched average expectations, but Davies fouling out in 24 minutes with zero rebounds and zero free throw attempts stands out as a subpar performance, and a key factor in the defeat.

Tomorrow night, home to a potential NCAA Tournament one seed and national championship candidate, Carlino, and the other members of the Big Three, get another chance to put it all together at the same time. In BYU's biggest games, and most notable losses, it hasn't happened. For BYU to have a legitimate shot at extending its season into late March, it will need to occur consistently.

Yes, basketball is a team game, and it will take more than three players playing well for BYU to reach attainable goals from here on out. Yet, basketball is also a sport in which three stand-out players, playing great together, can make a huge difference. Haws, Davies and Carlino have all proven capable of great individual performances in the past; BYU's immediate future will likely depend on them doing it as a collective.

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